Election Day is here, and Senator Rick Scott (R-FL) is attempting to defend his Senate seat for the first time, and the odds appear to be in his favor. He will look to fend off former Congresswoman Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D-FL) today in a race that tightened in the final weeks.
Sen. Scott has never lost a political campaign. And while the polls have tightened, it appears his sizable lead will be enough to get him over the finish line (somewhat) comfortably.
However, Time For A Refresher
Florida politics have experienced a sizable shift since Governor Ron DeSantis (R-FL) replaced former Governor Rick Scott in the Governor’s Mansion. The Sunshine State had never seen a Republican voter registration advantage in its history. However, the GOP now has a 1.1 million lead over their Democrat counterparts. It has been quite the swing in such a short amount of time.
In 2016, former President Donald Trump (R) carried the state by 1.3 points. In 2018, Rick Scott flipped longtime incumbent Senator Bill Nelson’s (D-FL) seat by two-tenths of a point. Ron DeSantis won by four-tenths of a point.
However, after Gov. DeSantis gained a national following during the COVID-19 pandemic, plenty of voters from other states found themselves in Florida and didn’t necessarily bring their home state’s politics with them.
2022 was a landslide victory for Florida Republicans, vastly outperforming the GOP nationwide. DeSantis and Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL) both won by over 16 points. They both carried Miami-Dade County, which was almost unheard of for Republicans. DeSantis also carried Palm Beach County.
Election Day, 2024
That brings us to today. Florida is not considered a swing state for the first time in a very, very, very long time. Since 1928, the Sunshine State has reflected the winner of the Electoral College in all but three races (1960, 1992, 2020).
Sen. Scott has a seven-point lead, according to the latest poll from Research Co. The smallest lead for Scott in the November polls is three points from Morning Consult.
President Trump is also comfortable with a 6.6-point lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in Florida, according to the FiveThirtyEight average, which appears to be on par with the polling in comparison to Sen. Scott.
The two had leads in the double digits just weeks ago, and they still could be reflected today. The early vote has already favored Republicans as they have a 3.5 million to 2.7 million advantage heading into Election Day. It just depends on who gets out and votes.
