Congressman and Florida gubernatorial candidate Byron Donalds (R-FL) brushed off concerns that Florida could be shifting blue after Democrats scored two special election victories.
"No, I'm not concerned," Donalds said in a recent interview with Christ Stirewalt on News Nation. "Look, special elections are very different animals, but we have been not just looking at the data; we've been on the ground, campaigning, talking to the people of Florida. We fully anticipate that in the midterm elections, everybody's going to know once and for all that Florida is a red state."
Rep. Donalds' confidence comes after Democrat Brian Nathan beat Republican Josie Tomkow in Senate District 14 and Democrat Emily Gregory beat Republican Jon Maples in House District 87 last week.
The GOP previously held both seats. HD 87, in Palm Beach County, is also the home of President Donald Trump's Mar-a-Lago resort.
Rep. Donalds, who endorsed Maples in the race, indicated to Stirewalt that Maples would again be running in the District's general election in November. Before Rep. Gregory's stunning upset, HD 87 was held by Republican Michael "Mike" Caruso, who won the seat by 19 points over Democrat Sienna Osta in 2022.
"Jon Maples lost by a couple 100 votes. He's coming back, and he's going to run this November," Donalds said.
Rep. Donalds also noted HD 87's sway in recent years. Democrat David Silvers beat Republican Sennett by 25 points in the District's 2020 general election.
"That seat has flipped back and forth over time, several times over the last two decades or so. We're confident we're going to get those seats back," Donalds said. "I'm not overly concerned about the Democrats."
But is Donalds being overconfident? Along with last week's victories, Democrats won the City of Miami mayoral race for the first time in decades in November 2025 and the City of Boca Raton mayoral race by one vote just this month.
Republicans previously held both seats.
If it's a trend or a series of aberrations, Donalds could find out if he's the Republican nominee in Florida's gubernatorial election on Nov. 3. Florida hasn't had a Democratic governor since early 1999.
Donalds is hoping to keep it that way.
Remember Tom Keen? I didn’t think so. He was a Dem who won a special in 2024 in HD 35 (Osceola, Orange Counties) after GOP Rep. Fred Hawkins resigned to become president of South Florida State College. He didn’t even get to sit because the legislature wasn’t in session during his brief term, but the Dems were crowing about it.
They weren’t crowing the following November when Republican Erika Booth, who lost to Keen, came back to win the seat for the full term.
There are over 1.5 million more Republicans than Dems in Florida. There are no more Dems in Florida than there were in 2005, despite the explosive growth the state has experienced. And those new GOP voters are not “blue locusts” moving down here from NY/NJ/PA/New England, but escapees from those hellholes of high taxes, crime, bad schools, and high housing costs. They are also a lot more minority than historically experienced, another unpleasant reality the Dems don’t want to admit.
The GOP ticket this year will be headed by a black man and a woman. Ain’t that something?