A new poll by the James Madison Institute survey shows U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds (R-FL) with a massive lead over his Republican primary opponents in the governor's race with the election in just 11 days.
Byron Donalds: 49%
Jay Collins: 18%
Paul Renner: 8%
James Fishback: 4%
Undecided: 17%
Notably, James Madison's poll is similar to other findings showing Rep. Donalds with a commanding lead over the Republican field going back several months. In fact, no other poll has Lt. Gov. Collins, Renner, or Fishback in first place.
While not set in stone, Rep. Donalds appears to be in good shape for the Republican primary on Aug. 18. He also has a massive fundraising advantage, broad support from the Republican delegation, and an endorsement from President Donald Trump to remind voters in making the case.
President Trump reaffirmed his support for Donalds in a Truth Social post this week.
The poll also looked at the Democratic primary, where David Jolly appears to be a virtual lock. Jolly became the likely nominee after Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings suspended his campaign in June after being diagnosed with prostate cancer.
David Jolly: 47%
Dayna Marie Foster: 4%
Thomas Fernandez: 4%
Undecided: 44%
So, Byron Donalds vs. David Jolly?
The Republican frontrunner has already turned his focus toward Jolly in a series of attacks on social media and even challenged him to three debates. Jolly has told Donalds to pump the brakes.
However, the poll still gave its hypothetical say in the matchup.
Byron Donalds: 45%
David Jolly: 38%
Other/Undecided: 17%
Unlike the Republican primary, Donalds' lead over Jolly is much slimmer. It also matches up with other polls showing Donalds with a single-digit advantage, including a University of North Florida poll released in July.
Unless something changes, the general election is likely to be much tighter than its prior counterpart, when Gov. Ron DeSantis defeated Democrat Charlie Crist by over 19 points in 2022. DeSantis' win was the largest margin of victory in a Florida gubernatorial election since Democrat Bob Graham's re-election in 1982.
