The Republican Party of Florida issued a final get-out-the-vote push on social media for three special elections occurring across the state on Tuesday.
The three special elections are House District 51, House District 87, and Senate District 14.
House District 51
Republican Hilary Holley
Democrat Edwin Perez
Area: part of Polk County (Central Florida)
Analysis: Both Holley and Perez are looking to replace Rep. Jesie Tomkow (R-Polk City), who is running in Senate District 14. Tomkow won the seat by nearly 14 points over Democrat Octavio Hernandez in 2024, so a GOP hold seems likely. However, an overperformance or an outright win by Democrats could provide a preview for the 2026 midterms and a big warning sign for Republicans in a deep red district. Holly has been endorsed by popular Polk County Sheriff Grady Judd, while Perez has the backing of Rep. and Senate Democratic candidate Angie Nixon (D-Jacksonville).
House District 87
Republican Jon Maples
Democrat Emily Gregory
Area: part of Palm Beach County (coastal)
Analysis: In a race that might show the GOP's staying power, Maples is looking to win the House seat against Gregory in Palm Beach County, which is getting closer and closer to flipping Republican by the day. While former Rep. Mike Caruso won the district by 19 points over Democrat Sienna Osta in 2024, a strong victory for Maples, who is Trump-endorsed, could show Republicans are close to maintaining control of a county that once was firmly blue, and push the Democrats further down in having a chance across other state elections in November. Gregory, a small business owner, is hoping to flip the script, right in Trump's backyard.
Senate District 14
Republican Josie Tomkow
Democrat Brian Nathan
Area: part of Hillsborough County
Analysis: The aforementioned Tomkow and Nathan are running to replace Jay Collins, who resigned from the seat to become lieutenant governor in August 2025. Collins won the seat by about 9 points over Democrat Janet Cruz in 2022, which includes most of Democratic-leaning Tampa, as well as the Northwest Hillsborough suburbs. Tomkow is a seventh-generation Floridian and cattle rancher, while Nathan is a union leader and Navy veteran. Turnout could arguably be a factor here when taking into account voters' lack of enthusiasm for the GOP nationally and the county's landscape as a "swing" district, or show Florida is not taking part in the trend.
Polling is open at all elections from 7 a.m.to 7 p.m. on Tuesday.
