The Republican Party of Florida is heading into the New Year with a sizeable advantage over its Democratic counterparts, according to the Florida Division of Elections.
As it stands, the GOP has 5,522,833 registered voters compared to the Democrats' 4,108,884 (+1.4 million). No party affiliations (NPAs) have 3,381,443 voters, while minor parties have 455,725.
And that really hasn't changed much over the past four years. In 2024, Florida Republicans had 5,635,902 registered voters while Democrats had 4,479,820. The GOP also had a nearly 800,000-vote lead in 2023 and about a 400,000-vote advantage in 2022.
The last time it was remotely close between Republicans and Democrats was in 2021, when the GOP held a 5,123,799 - 5,080,697 (+43,102) in the state. Democrats last held registration control in 2020 by about 100,000 (5,315,954 - 5,218,739).
Democrats also held leads in 2017, 2018, and 2019. In fact, that remained the case, with fluctuations in margins, all the way back to the start of the records in 1972.
That's nearly 40 years.
So 2026 should be a good year for Florida Republicans, right? By the most objective measure, the numbers certainly say so.
Taking it another step further, the GOP holds supermajorities in the State House and Senate. On a national level, Congressional Republicans have significant advantages in Washington and could gain even more with the state's plan for redistricting.
President Donald Trump also carried the state by about 13 points over Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election. Gov. Ron DeSantis won by even more with a 20-point victory over Democrat Charlie Crist in 2022.
With the midterms coming up in November 2026, do Democrats have a chance against Republicans in Florida? While a midterm is historically devastating for the opposition party, the GOP's buildup over the past several years could be too insurmountable for Democrats to overcome.
If this were sports, it would be like the Patriots beating up on the Jets last weekend, going up 35-3 before taking its foot off the gas in the second half. They would go on to win 42-10.
Hey, at least I left out the Dolphins. But since we are on the subject, they last won a playoff game 25 years ago today (Dec. 30, 2000).
That was also about the last time Democrats had a governor in Tallahassee (Jan. 5, 1999).
So, the Dophins and the Democrats might have that in common given the numbers: they might not be winning anything for a long time, anytime soon.
