A recent poll by Stetson University’s Center for Public Opinion Research (CPOR) shows Congressman and Florida gubernatorial candidate Byron Donalds (R-FL) with a steady lead over Democratic opponents David Jolly and Jerry Demings in the governor's race.
Rep. Donalds: 47% - David Jolly: 40%
Rep. Donalds: 46% - Jerry Demings: 42%
Roughly seven percent of voters are undecided in both scenarios. The poll of 848 likely voters was conducted between March 25 and April 13.
Along with the gubernatorial matchup, Stetson polled Florida's special Senate contest between Republican incumbent Ashley Moody and Democrat Alex Vindman, with Sen. Moody holding a 7-point edge over Vindman (50% to 43%).
Sen. Moody also holds a 13-point lead over Rep. Angie Nixon (D-Jacksonville).
“It seems that the Republicans have an advantage for the upcoming election. However, the election is far away, and it may be more competitive as we get closer,” said Kelly Smith, PhD, an associate professor of Political Science at Stetson, in the release. “We’re seeing a state that leans Republican structurally, but not one where the outcome is predetermined.”
Stetson's poll follows a similar Echelon Insights poll showing Donalds with a lead over both Jolly and Demings in the race. A University of North Florida poll taken in March also has Donalds leading both candidates.
Notably, Stetson, Emerson, and North Florida all have Donalds holding single-digit leads over both competitors.
In 2022, Gov. Ron DeSantis defeated Democrat Charlie Crist by over 19 points in the gubernatorial race. Former Republican Sen. Marco Rubio, whom Sen. Moody is seeking to replace for a full term, defeated Democrat Val Demings by over 16 points that same year.
Moody was appointed to Rubio's seat after he left to become Secretary of State in January 2025.
Florida hasn't elected a Democratic governor since 1994 or a Democratic senator since 2012, with Lawton Chiles and Bill Nelson serving in those positions, respectively. Chiles served from 1991 to 1998 after being reelected to a second term, while Nelson served from 2001 to 2019 after being reelected to a third term in 2012.
The gubernatorial and Senate elections will be decided on Nov. 3, 2026.
