A new poll by the Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida (UNF) shows Congressman and Florida gubernatorial candidate Byron Donalds (R-FL) with six and seven-point leads over Democratic opponents David Jolly and Jerry Demings, respectively, in the governor's race.
The poll found Rep. Donalds at 42% support, while Jolly received 36%, with 17% undecided. In the other matchup, Donalds earned 43% support, while Demings received 36%, with 16% undecided.
UNF picked Rep. Donalds as the candidate based on its recent Republican primary poll.
In another Florida race, UNF found Sen. Ashley Moody (R) with an eight-point lead over Democratic candidate Alexander Vindman and a seven-point edge over Rep. Angie Nixon (D-Jacksonville).
The poll found Sen. Moody at 45% support, while Vindman received 38%, with 15% undecided. In the other matchup, Moody earned 46% support, while Nixon received 38%, with 14% undecided.
Notably, both Rep. Donalds and Sen. Moody have been endorsed by President Donald Trump in their respective races.
Jolly announced his candidacy for governor in June 2025, while Demings entered in November 2025.
Both Vindman and Nixon entered the Senate field in January.
“At least at this stage in these races, vote choice is much more about partisanship than candidate identity,” PORL director and professor of political science Sean Freeder said. "Republicans still enjoy a clear advantage with Florida voters, but it doesn't yet appear as strong as in previous years, perhaps unsurprising given that the party of the President usually struggles more in midterm elections."
In addition to candidate polling, respondents were asked the most important issue facing Floridians today:
Here are the results:
- Affordability/cost of living: 50%
- Political division/polarization: 12%
- Immigration: 8%
Notably, affordability concerns were the top choice across party lines. More specifically, Republicans were more concerned with immigration and education (14%), while Democrats and Independents were more concerned with political division at 12% and 17%, respectively.
The gubernatorial and special Senate election is set for Nov. 3.
