Florida has long been considered a solidly red state, with a long track record of sitting Republican governors . The last time a Democrat occupied the governor's mansion was 1999 when Gov. Buddy McKay was governor.
Governor Ron DeSantis won the position for the first time in 2018 with 49.6% of the vote, beating out the Democratic candidate by just 0.4 percentage points. Gov. DeSantis was reelected in 2022, though, with a much wider margin, garnering almost 60% of the vote.
But the state may be becoming a little more liberal, at least according to Cook Political Report, which ranks races based on which way they lean from solidly Democrat to solidly Republican.
The Florida governor's race has been solidly Republican for years, but the rating organization just changed the race's status to likely Republican.
The designation means the race is still not considered competitive, but it has the potential to become interesting.
This comes after another political forecastor made the same change in July.
The Democratic nominee, former Republican Representative David Jolly, can appeal to independents, moderates and potentially even disillusioned Republicans, giving the Democratic candidate a potential advantage in the general election against Republican nominee Representative Byron Donalds, according to the explanation regarding the status change.
However, Jolly would still need a big financial boost to win the necessary votes to defeat Rep. Donalds, who out-fundraised Jolly ten-fold.
In the Likely Republican category, Florida is joined by Arkansas, New Hampshire and Texas.
This change comes a few days after Florida's 14th congressional district race moved from the lean Republican to the toss-up category, meaning both parties have a good chance at winning.
The district, which encompasses the Tampa area, sees incumbent Democrat Representative Kathy Castor competing for reelection against Republican nominee and former state Representative Mike Beltran. This seat is considered a toss-up now.
However, Republicans might still have a net gain this midterm season, with the recently redrawn congressional maps expected to give Republicans up to four seats in Congress.
All bets are off this election cycle.
