Larry Sabato, a popular political scientist and election forecaster, is forecasting that gubernatorial candidate David Jolly has a better chance at becoming the first elected Democratic governor of Florida in over three decades.
According to Sabato's Crystal Ball predictions, Florida has moved from "Safe R" (Republican) to "Likely R," giving Jolly and Florida Democrats possibly more optimism heading into the November election. Sabato cited a recent University of North Florida poll showing Jolly within five-points of Donalds for his reasoning.
Other polls have also shown the race within single digits.
"We would not call Florida truly competitive. But an open seat and relatively close polling are enough to move this off Safe Republican and into Likely Republican," J. Miles Coleman wrote. "We also noticed that Donalds recently challenged Jolly to a series of debates. Though Donalds, as the GOP primary frontrunner, may simply be signaling that he’s ready to pivot toward the general election, candidates who are comfortably ahead are not usually the ones pressing for debates."
As mentioned, Rep. Donalds challenged Jolly to three debates this week.
Lawton Chiles was the last elected Democratic governor of Florida in 1994. The state has since elected three Republican governors, including Gov. Ron DeSantis for two terms.
Along with the gubernatorial race, Sabato's predictions are also expecting a close race for U.S. Senate, where incumbent Sen. Ashley Moody (R) will likely face off against Democratic candidates Alexander Vindman or Rep. Angie Nixon (D-Jacksonville) in a special election.
Notably, the predication has Vindman, a former national security aide who played a central role in the first impeachment of President Donald Trump, as the frontrunner.
"We moved the state’s Senate contest, where appointed Sen. Ashley Moody (R) will likely face Democrat Alexander Vindman, from Safe Republican to Likely Republican back in January, for essentially the same reason—a credible opponent in a state that, however red it’s become, may not have entirely lost its capacity to produce an intriguing statewide race," Coleman added.
The primary is Aug. 18, with the general election on Nov. 3.
