Analysts say Venezuelan Strongman Nicolas Maduro's consolidation of power requires democratic forces to recalibrate approach as regime prepares dangerous constitutional reforms
One year after Maduro's widely disputed reelection in Venezuela's July 28, 2024 presidential contest, policy experts and opposition leaders are calling for a fundamental recalibration of democratic strategy as the authoritarian regime consolidates power and prepares for constitutional changes that could cement its control.
Speaking at an Atlantic Council event Tuesday at the Adrienne Arsht Latin American Center in Washington, D.C. titled "One Year Later: Venezuela's presidential election and the road ahead," panelists warned that Maduro has successfully transformed Venezuela's political landscape, creating new challenges that require fresh approaches from both the Venezuelan opposition and U.S. policymakers.
The Stolen Election and International Response
The July 28, 2024 presidential election was marked by widespread allegations of fraud and manipulation. Venezuela's National Electoral Council declared Maduro the winner with 52% of the vote against opposition candidate Edmundo González's 43%, but refused to publish detailed vote tallies or provide transparency in the counting process. The election was deemed neither free nor fair by international monitors, with the Carter Center concluding it "did not meet international standards of electoral integrity and cannot be considered democratic."
At the time, the U.S. State Department strongly rejected the results, recognizing that Edmundo González Urrutia had “won the most votes” and describing the processing of votes and announcement of results as "deeply flawed, yielding an announced outcome that does not represent the will of the Venezuelan people."
Most democratic countries refused to recognize Maduro's victory, with nations including the United States, most European Union members, and several Latin American countries recognizing González as the legitimate winner. Recently, the State Department reiterated its position, declaring that "Maduro is not the President of Venezuela and his regime is not the legitimate government."
A Changed Political Reality
The Atlantic Council panelists emphasized that Venezuela's opposition must confront a fundamentally altered political landscape since the fraudulent election.
"The Venezuelan people were ripped off because they expressed their will," said Griselda Colina, Founding Director of Observatorio Global de Comunicación y Democracia. "The group in power crossed that red line, so elections will never again be as we've seen prior to those processes, where votes are counted fairly. There's a new way to do elections in Venezuela, where the numbers are not published, there's no counting of the vote, there's no auditing of the votes, it is a completely opaque process."
Journalist Eugenio Martinez warned that the opposition "needs to reconfigure itself to respond to a new political reality and a regime that has continued to evolve." He pointed to recent municipal election results that not only cemented Maduro's power but "paved the way toward a dangerous constitutional reform in 2026" aimed at electoral redistricting that would consolidate Maduro's control and essentially eliminate popular vote for presidential elections.
The Path Forward: Dialogue Despite Differences
Despite the regime's authoritarian nature, panelists agreed that dialogue remains the only viable path toward democratic transition.
Roberto Enríquez, Executive Secretary Pro Tempore of the Democratic Unitary Platform (PUD), argued for developing "an integral democratic agreement" through engagement. "You must engage in dialogue, and you need to hold discussions with those who are in control, but also, with those who the Venezuelan people selected as their leaders," he said, while cautioning against both "demonizing dialogue" and pursuing "unrealistic negotiations."
The PUD continues to recognize María Corina Machado and Edmundo González as the opposition's legitimate leaders and believes any agreement should build on previous negotiations in Mexico.
U.S. Policy at a Crossroads
Brian Fonseca, Director of the Jack D. Gordon Institute for Public Policy at Florida International University, offered a sobering assessment of current U.S. policy toward Venezuela, arguing that the "maximum pressure" sanctions campaign of the first Trump administration failed to produce meaningful change and may have inadvertently strengthened Maduro's position.
"The maximum pressure campaign did not succeed. It did not produce meaningful political change in Caracas, and it failed to weaken the regime's hold on power," Fonseca said. "In fact, in many ways, I think it may have reinforced it by driving Venezuela further into the arms of America's geopolitical competitors."
He noted that China, Russia, and Iran have eagerly filled the vacuum left by U.S. disengagement, providing Maduro with alternatives to American influence. "Maduro does not need Washington to survive, and I think he knows it," Fonseca observed.
That’s why Fonseca believes that “despite the regime's autocratic nature, despite its human rights record, the United States must remain engaged,” adding, “in this context, engagement doesn't mean endorsement. It means staying in the game and preserving US' ability to influence outcome and preventing this strategic space from being completely dominated by rivals.”
The Trump administration's recent decision to reinstate Chevron's license to operate in Venezuela signals what moderator Geoff Ramsey described as "a strategic recalibration aimed at pragmatism without abandoning core democratic principles." This approach combines "strategic and economic engagement on the one hand with continued political pressure on the other."
International Observation Insights
Jenny Lincoln from the Carter Center, which provided the only credible international election observation mission during the July 28 vote, emphasized the significance of bearing witness to the electoral fraud. "The most significant accomplishment is that we were there, and we were able to broadcast to the world what had happened," she said, while acknowledging that international observers "cannot force electoral authorities to do the right thing."
The Stakes Moving Forward
The panelists warned that the upcoming constitutional reform process in 2026 represents a critical juncture for Venezuela's democratic future. The reforms could further entrench authoritarian rule by manipulating electoral districts and eliminating direct presidential elections.
As Colina noted, "We are facing a new reality, and we must respond with new measures." The challenge for both Venezuelan opposition forces and international supporters will be developing strategies that account for Maduro's consolidated power while preserving space for eventual democratic transition.
One year after Venezuela's stolen election, the path forward remains uncertain, but experts agree that engagement, rather than isolation, offers the best hope for eventually restoring democratic governance to the crisis-stricken nation.
