With less than a month away from the 2026 midterm elections, President Donald Trump is pointing the blame at Democrats and other foreign conflicts for the increased cost of fuel at the gas pumps.
“What's driving up Gasoline is no longer the Strait of Hormuz, because Record Numbers of Barrels are coming out now on an almost daily basis,” President Trump wrote on Truth Social.
The president instead has shifted the blame to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and the closure of oil refineries within Democratic-led states like California.
Ukraine's Drone Strike on Refineries
As of late September 2026, Ukrainian forces have attacked 27 of Russia’s major oil refineries – allegedly disabling roughly 51% of Russia’s total refining capacity.
According to a recent analysis from the International Energy Agency (IEA), the Ukrainian drone strikes have caused Russian gasoline production to drop by 20% and diesel by nearly 30% compared with 2025 levels.
Refinery Closures Across the U.S.
President Trump’s accusation of blue-led states contributing to higher gasoline and diesel prices might hold some weight.
In less than a year, California has witnessed two oil refinery closures: the Phillips 66 refinery in Oct. 2025 and the Valero Benicia refinery in San Francisco in Apr. 2026.
Reports, however, show that it has occurred in red states as well, with Houston’s LyondellBasell facility closing in Feb. 2025.
These closures are driven by several factors, including economic and market shifts (declining fuel demand, pandemic-era market drops, and low profit margins) or increased costs to maintain or upgrade facilities, leading to facility conversions to renewable diesel or streamlined operations.
In some cases, natural disasters contribute to closures, such as the Phillips 66 Alliance Refinery’s transition to an export terminal in 2021 due to Hurricane Ida.
Crude Exports Mostly Back To Pre-Conflict Levels
President Trump’s assertion that the conflict with Iran is no longer a factor in increased fuel costs comes amid recent reports that crude exports from the Strait of Hormuz have mostly returned to pre-conflict levels.
Ship-tracking firm Kpler reported that crude exports surpassed pre-war levels at the end of September 2026 – 19.5 million to 22.5 million barrels per day (bpd).
Exports averaged 18 million bpd in the 12 months prior to “Operation Epic Fury.”
