With Florida's 2026 midterm primary election just over 3 months away, the most talked about and followed race in Florida is without question the contentious contest to be the next governor of the Sunshine State. With that said, more and more public opinion surveys pitting Rep. Byron Donalds against Lt. Gov. Jay Collins are beginning to surface as Floridians begin to follow the race more closely.
A recent poll, an internal poll conducted by veteran pollster Tony Fabrizio for the Byron Donalds gubernatorial campaign, shows Rep. Donalds with a commanding 54% approval rating over the rest of the field of candidates—Lt. Gov. Jay Collins, Speaker Paul Renner, and James Fishback.
The Fabrizio poll mirrors a recent poll conducted by Emerson College.
But with all that said, and because politics is consuming Florida, a newly released poll conducted in late April paints a different picture of the race.
The poll in question, which was emailed to The Floridian this week from a donor who asked that we not disclose his or her name, still shows Rep. Donalds in the lead, but not with the 54% support he held in the Fabrizio or Emerson surveys.
It is important to note that the poll we received appears to be a push poll that does not state who conducted or commissioned the poll.
One thing we can divulge about the donor, who did not deny or admit he or she was behind the poll, is that he or she bundled campaign cash for both President Donald Trump during his run for President in 2020 and 2024, and to Governor DeSantis' gubernatorial reelection campaign in 2022.
Also, aside from the basic questions that would be asked in most surveys, this particular survey focuses on highlighting Lt. Gov. Collins and asks voters about Rep. Donalds's alleged checkered past and the alleged transgressions of his former aide, Larry Wilcoxson.
The Questions
First, the top-line question of this poll is:
Q2. If the Republican Primary for Florida Governor were held today, whom will you vote for?
The survey results show Donalds with 31% support, followed by Collins with 17% support. Renner and Fishback follow with 3% and 2% support, respectfully.
The questions asked that pertained directly to Collins were very complimentary of the sitting lieutenant governor, which would make one believe that the poll was obviously conducted by someone who favors him.
Q3. Jay Collins is a former Special Forces Green Beret who lost his leg in combat in Afghanistan, serving for five additional years following his injury. He was awarded the Purple Heart, Bronze Star, and Soldiers’ Medal among over a dozen military honors.
Here are the questions that were asked about Donalds' past. It goes without saying that whoever commissioned the poll probably dislikes Donalds.
Q6. A top advisor to Byron Donalds pleaded guilty to the sexual assault of a minor and multiple other violent felonies. Reportedly, Donalds has continued to pay this individual over $400,000 in campaign funds as recently as last year.
Q7. While claiming to oppose congressional stock trading, records show Byron Donalds made nearly 200 trades worth up to $2.8 million without the required federal disclosures. During his time in Congress, his net worth has increased from under $1 million to as much as $7 million.
Q8. Byron Donalds disclosed a third-degree felony for financial crimes on his record but omitted a more serious second-degree felony involving the distribution of illegal drugs, an offense punishable by up to 15 years in prison.
According to the poll, voters pivoted away from Donalds after learning of the allegations made against him, putting Collins at a 39.97% to 18.45% advantage.
Again, this poll appears to be slanted in favor of Collins, so we reached out to Lt. Gov. Collins' campaign and asked if they were behind the poll.
John Cardillo, the campaign's senior advisor, responded to our request for comment and categorically denied having anything to do with the poll.
“Neither the Jay Collins campaign nor any affiliated political committee paid for this poll. We have no idea who commissioned the poll," stated Cardillo. "That said the results show what we have known. Jay’s momentum is undeniable and continues to grow despite spending a fraction of what our opponents have spent."
Cardillo did take a shot at Donalds, dismissing the Fabrizio survey as a "fake push poll."
"Once people meet Jay they want him as their next governor, unlike Byron Donalds who despite his fake push polls rapidly loses traction when people learn about his background, affiliations, and commitments to his donors. Floridians know that, unlike Byron, Jay will put them above special interests," Cardillo added.
We also reached out to the Renner gubernatorial campaign. They also denied pushing out the poll.
A campaign spokesperson called the poll results "the dumbest thing" he had ever heard.
Team Donalds pointed to strategists Ryan Smith's previous comments regarding the Fabrizio poll.
"Trump-endorsed @Byron_Donalds with his biggest and best lead yet. Byron is the proven America First conservative fighter to lead Florida Republicans to victory in November," said Ryan Smith.
As far as Fishback is concerned, crickets.
The winner of the Republican gubernatorial sweepstakes will face off with the winner of the David Jolly and Jerry Demings Democratic primary.
Jolly, the centrist, Charlie Crist-lite, and the former Republican congressman from Pinellas County, is considered the favorite to win the Democratic governor's race.
