Congressman and Florida gubernatorial candidate Byron Donalds (R-FL) is ahead of Democratic candidate David Jolly in a hypothetical matchup to become Florida's next governor, according to an Emerson College poll released this week.
Rep. Donalds led Jolly 44% to 39% in the matchup. Another 15% were undecided, and 2% picked another candidate.
“Florida Hispanic voters are split between Donalds and Jolly: 42% support Donalds and 41% Jolly,” Emerson College Polling Executive Director Spencer Kimball said. “Men break for Donalds by 14 points, 49% to 35%, while women break for Jolly by three points, 43% to 40%.”
The poll also found Rep. Donalds ahead of Democratic candidate Jerry Demings for governor, 45% to 36%. Another 19% were undecided or picked another candidate.
While the gubernatorial race is in the single digits, the Republican primary is not all that close.
Donalds has 46% support among Republican voters, with Lt. Gov Jay Collins and businessman James Fishback trailing far behind at 4% each. Former Florida House Speaker Paul Renner is slightly behind at 3%, with another 3% picking another candidate.
Notably, 39% were undecided in the race.
“Byron Donalds is the clear favorite among Republicans to succeed Governor DeSantis,” Kimball added. “Donalds leads all age groups and holds majority support among voters over 60, at 54%.”
In the Democratic primary, Jolly led Demings 21% to 10%, with 53% undecided.
The poll also found Sen. Ashley Moody (R-FL) leading three Democratic challengers, Alexander Vindman and Rep. Angie Nixon (D-Jacksonville), in Florida's Senate special election.
Sen. Moody led Vindman 46% to 38%, with 16% undecided; and Rep. Nixon 47% to 36%, with 16% undecided. Moody was appointed to the Senate by Gov. Ron DeSantis in January 2025.
The gubernatorial and Senate elections will be decided on Nov. 3.
Emerson also surveyed job approval ratings of President Donald Trump, Gov. Ron DeSantis, and Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL), and Sen. Moody among likely Florida voters.
- President Trump (46% approve/47% disaprove)
- Gov. DeSantis (50% approve/40% disaprove)
- Sen. Scott (40% approve/40% disaprove)
- Sen. Moody (36% approve/28% disaprove/36% neutral/never heard)
