Republicans Lose Congressional Majority If Tax Credits Expire, Poll Finds

Republicans Lose Congressional Majority If Tax Credits Expire, Poll Finds

Michael Costeines
Michael Costeines
July 17, 2025

Congressional Republicans looking to hold onto their slim majority next fall should extend the Obamacare tax credits that expire at the end of the year or face a greater likelihood of losing the House to Democrats, according to a survey from pollsters Tony Fabrizio and Bob Ward.

"Republicans have an opportunity to overcome a current generic ballot deficit and take the lead by extending the healthcare premium tax credits for those who purchase health insurance for themselves," the survey indicated.

According to the survey, House Republicans in battleground districts specifically take a 6-point lead over Democrats, and reverse a 3-point deficit, on a generic ballot if they extend the Premium Tax Credit (PTC) into Fiscal Year 2026.

The GOP currently holds a 220 to 213 margin over Democrats in Congress. There are also three current vacancies, with special elections for those seats later this year.

That could make the margin even tighter.

"Unlike recent changes to Medicaid which do not go into effect until after the midterm elections, voters on the individual insurance marketplace, who voted for Trump by 4-points, will begin getting notices of significant premium hikes this fall," the survey indicated. "The incentive is to act on extending the tax credit soon. Republicans can position themselves ahead of Democrats in these districts by extending the premium tax credit.”

Failure to do so could put Republicans in an insurmountable hole.
The poll found battleground Democrats taking a whopping 15-point lead, or a further 12-point advantage than their current lead over Republicans, if the GOP drags its feet and lets the tax credits expire. That could also lead to House Speaker Mike Johnson giving up the gavel and passing it off to Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries.
"Republicans can expect a loss of support in these most competitive districts if the premium tax credit is not extended," the survey said.
While midterm elections are generally unfavorable to the party in power, Congressional Republicans don't need to make matters worse. The GOP was the last party to hold onto its majority under former President George W. Bush in 2002, so making the simple decision to extend the tax credits could pay dividends.
Michael Costeines

Michael Costeines

Michael Costeines: Florida Political Correspondent/Capitol Reporter for The Floridian (2024-Present) Over 1000 stories written covering Gov. Gon DeSantis, Florida Attorney General James Uthmeier, the Florida GOP, State Legislature, and others Shared by Gov. Ron DeSantis, the White House, Florida GOP Chairman Evan Power, James Uthmeier and others

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