Last year, I anticipated heightened violence and conflict in 2024. Regrettably, the year’s defining moments for me were the realization of those predictions.
In the Middle East, I claimed President Joe Biden’s lukewarm support for Israel and his nonconfrontational foreign-policy strategy will further destabilize the Middle East by emboldening Hamas, Iran, and peripheral groups such as Hezbollah and the Houthis.
Indeed, Iran hurled thousands of rockets at Israeli civilians and leveraged its “axis of evil” to push Israel into a multifront war. Israel’s battles against Hezbollah in the north, Hamas in the south, and the Houthis in the east underscored the perils of weak Western leadership amid festering Islamic fundamentalism.
In Europe, I similarly predicted Russia’s energy sales, including to European purchasers, and the successful circumvention of largely symbolic Western sanctions would allow Vladimir Putin to ameliorate economic pressure and continue funding the war.
Effectively, Russia, bolstered by autocratic allies, consolidated gains while evading poorly enforced sanctions. However, mounting costs and waning resolve could make the election of President-elect Donald Trump—another defining 2024 moment—a turning point in ending Europe’s bloodiest conflict since World War II.
Russia’s military achievements demonstrated autocratic regimes’ ability to exploit porous international sanctions and flout international and human rights law with impunity.
Meanwhile, China harnessed its military, diplomatic, and economic might to forge critical geopolitical alliances and strengthen its position for future conflicts. U.S. military warnings of a potential 2027 U.S.-China war and developments like China’s megaport in Chancay, Peru, marked other critical moments of 2024.
In Latin America, authoritarian regimes capitalized on Western concessions and Chinese financing to crush democratic movements. Mass protests following fraudulent elections and human rights abuses highlighted the need for reinvigorated democratic presence in the region.
Despite 2024’s turmoil, a new U.S. administration and political headwinds across the West offer hope that 2025 will be remembered for its positive milestones, contrasting with this year’s conflicts.
