Can DeSantis Catch Up to Trump in 2024?

Can DeSantis Catch Up to Trump in 2024?

Grayson Bakich
Grayson Bakich
April 24, 2023

Before his official and presumed presidential announcement, Governor Ron DeSantis (R) trails behind former President Donald Trump in a hypothetical 2024 Republican primary contest.

The latest national public opinion polls place Trump far ahead of the competition by a comfortable margin, averaging 29 percentage points over Gov. DeSantis as of April 19th.

Additionally, practically every Republican in Congress is pushing for the former President, including nearly half of Florida's Representatives in the House of Representatives.

Against such odds, does Team DeSantis have any rocks in its sling that may take down the Trump Goliath?

The most recent poll by NBC showed that while Republican support for Trump remains high, Gov. DeSantis could close the gap.

Namely, outside the GOP sphere, many Americans are not looking forward to a potential rematch of the 2020 Election, with the respective ages of Trump (76) and Biden (80) cited as a reason. 70% across all demographics stated they did not want Biden to run again, while 60% said the same regarding Trump.

Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt said, "At this stage, 2024 is shaping up to be a sequel of the 2020 election."

The Republican pollster Bill McInturff added, "It’s clear that people do not want a Biden-Trump rematch."

Moreover, another poll conducted by the Wall Street Journal reveals several other advantages DeSantis has.

The first is that favorability ratings for DeSantis are at 84% compared to 78% for Trump.

The second and most crucial is that if the general election happened today, DeSantis would defeat Biden by three percentage points (48 to 45) while Trump would lose by the same number, with the results being within the margin of error.

In February, Newsweek similarly reported that DeSantis held the advantage in independent voters over Biden, averaging 12.4 percent.

Overall, the current picture suggests that because DeSantis is arguably the second choice for Republicans, his poll numbers could improve if the Trump campaign suffers damage it could not recover from.

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Grayson Bakich

Grayson Bakich

Florida born and raised, Grayson Bakich is a recent recipient of a Master’s Degree in Political Science at the University of Central Florida. His thesis examined recent trends in political polarization and how this leads into justification of violence.

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