A new poll by the University of North Florida's Public Opinion Research Lab (PORL) shows Congressman and Florida gubernatorial candidate Byron Donalds (R-FL) with a slim advantage over Democratic challenger David Jolly with the election less than two weeks away.
Donalds: 49%
Jolly: 47%
Undecided: 4%
"Though Donalds enjoys a slight advantage, these numbers suggest a competitive gubernatorial race similar to the race between Andrew Gillum and Ron DeSantis in 2018, which was won by less than a percentage point. Given the margin of error, a win by either candidate would be unsurprising," PORL Faculty Director Sean Freeder said.
The PORL margin of error was +/- 2.81 percentage points.
"This increased competitiveness can primarily be attributed to national-level effects - midterm elections are generally difficult for the party of the president, especially given Trump's near-historic low approval ratings," Freeder continued. "Furthermore, Donalds' attempt to win over Black voters does not appear to be working, as Donalds receives just 10% of their support, only slightly more than Senator Moody's 9%, despite not engaging in nearly as much effort."
The poll also found a crossover for both candidates with 11% of registered Republicans voting for Jolly and 5% of registered Democrats voting for Rep. Donalds. Independents also side with Jolly by 16 points.
A PORL had Donalds up five points in June.
Notably, the recent poll is the closest of surveys showing Rep. Donalds in the lead. A Stetson University poll had Donalds up 11 points, while a N+ Univision/YouGov poll had him up eight points this month.
PORL also looked at the U.S. Senate special election showing Ashley Moody (R-FL) up four points on Democrat Angie Nixon.
Moody: 49%
Nixon: 45%
Undecided: 5%
The poll also found a crossover with 10% of registered Republicans backing Nixon and 8% of registered Democrats backing Moody. Independents side with Nixon by 15 points.
"Like Donalds, Moody appears to be in a competitive race, though one that leans more decisively in her favor. Independents favor Nixon by 15 points, and also appear to be more concerned about Moody's ties to Hope Florida than Nixon's ties to socialism," Freeder said. “Given the anti-incumbent mood of swing voters, both Donalds and Moody's success depends upon Republicans not falling too far behind Democrats in terms of turnout and enthusiasm."
