Democratic gubernatorial candidate David Jolly shared a dose of optimism heading into the Labor Day weekend as he looks to become the first elected Democrat for Florida governor in over three decades.
According to Inside Elections, the gubernatorial contest between Jolly and Republican challenger Byron Donalds has moved from "solid Republican" to "likely Republican" with the election in 60 days.
"Floridians are asking for something better than constant division. They're asking for leadership that makes their lives better," Jolly wrote on social media. "This is our second positive ratings shift by a national race analyst in one weeks' time. That's because people across the state are believing in this campaign, and everyone's taking notice. Let’s keep the momentum going!"
A Cook Political Report also shifted the race from "solid Republican" to "likely Republican" in late August. While a slight change, the positivity for Democrats is something they will likely take. Another election forecaster put the race in the same pot.
No Democrat has been elected Florida governor since Lawton Chiles in 1994. Since then, Republicans have rattled off four governors since January 1999.
- Jeb Bush (1999-2007)
- Charlie Crist (2007-2011)
- Rick Scott (2011-2019)
- Ron DeSantis (2019-Present)
Gov. DeSantis is term-limited and cannot run for a third consecutive term under the Florida Constitution. He will leave office on Jan. 5, 2027.
If recent history is any indication, Republicans should be feeling pretty good. Gov. DeSantis defeated now-Democrat Charlie Crist by over 19 points in the 2022 gubernatorial re-election bid.
The win was also the largest margin of victory in a Florida's governor's race since 1982. Republicans also hold a 1.5 million voter registration advantage, and it appears to only be growing.
However, DeSantis won by just 0.4 points over Democrat Andrew Gillum in his initial election in 2022.
Could we be looking at another drastic shift in 2026? Jolly certainly hopes so.
Florida Democrats also have some reason for optimism after securing victories in the City of Miami mayor race and flipping to two Legislative seats in special elections in March, including one in President Donald Trump's backyard.
So, you're saying there's a chance?
With Labor Day as an unofficial starting gate, anything could happen. Republicans are hoping for more of the same, while Democrats hope to shake up the proverbial landscape.
