First Lady Casey DeSantis is slightly ahead of Florida Congressman Byron Donalds for the GOP nomination in Florida's gubernatorial race, a University of North Florida (UNF) poll found. The poll showed DeSantis with 32% support, compared to Donalds' 29%, with 18% undecided.
The poll is also within the 3.9-percentage-point margin of error, making the race a statistical tie. Notably, DeSantis held a sizable 22% to 9% advantage over Donalds, with 40% undecided, in a previous UNF poll.
Rep. Donalds earned the endorsement of President Donald Trump in February.
"After Trump’s endorsement of Donalds and as we get closer to August 2026, DeSantis’s lead has all but disappeared, now inside the margin of error for this poll,” said Dr. Michael Binder, UNF PORL faculty director and professor of political science.
In addition, Donalds holds a sizable lead with people who voted in the 2024 GOP primary.
“It’s important to note that among folks who voted in the last primary, Donalds is 15 points ahead of DeSantis, and it’s likely those same folks will be the ones voting next August, so this race might not actually be as close as it appears,” added Binder.
Donalds is the only major Republican candidate in the race. DeSantis, while rumored to be joining the GOP field, has not made an official announcement.
If she decides to jump in, the poll found DeSantis in good standing with women, Hispanics and Latinos, voters in north and central Florida, and those under 65. Donalds is favored among men,
respondents aged 65 and older, along with South Florida voters.
Either way, both DeSantis and Donalds appear to be the two top choices. Former U.S. Rep. Matt Gaetz, currently the host of the Matt Gaetz Show on One America News Network, received 8% support.
Independent State Sen. Jason Pizzo, a former Democrat, is also in the race. David Jolly, a former Republican congressman, is leading the Democratic ticket.
