A new poll of Florida likely voters found that Congressman and Florida gubernatorial candidate Byron Donalds (R-FL) is holding a comfortable lead over Democratic challenger David Jolly for the governor's mansion.
According to Victory Insights, the Republican frontrunner holds 36.7% support to the Democratic newcomer's 31.4%, a lead of 5.3 points. Jolly, a former Republican, entered the governor's race last week, while Rep. Donalds joined in February.
The poll also found 31.9% of voters are still undecided. In a good sign for Donalds, the poll noted undecided voters lean Republican by 17 percentage points.
Donalds has represented Florida's 19th congressional district since 2021. He also served in the Florida House of Representatives from 2016 to 2020.
He is also an ally of President Donald Trump, who endorsed him in the governor's race.
Jolly represented Florida's 13th congressional district from 2014 to 2017. He later switched his party affiliation to Independent for two years before becoming a registered Democrat in April.
During his time out of office, Jolly has appeared as a political commentator on CNN and MSNBC. He also became a vocal critic of President Donald Trump.
While it might seem like Donalds has more name ID with Trump's backing, the poll said neither he nor Jolly is well-known by Florida voters, particularly its 32% undecided.
Specifically, the poll found Donalds with just under 49.4% name ID to Jolly's 41.9%. For context, both Trump and Gov. Ron DeSantis have around 95% name ID according to the same poll.
Regardless, Donalds is in a good position as it stands. He is also the only major Republican gubernatorial candidate in the field, likely raising his standing with right-leaning voters.
"When you consider that neither Donalds nor Jolly are known by a majority of voters yet that number seems less surprising," Victory Insights' memo said. "The logical next step is to consider who the undecided voters are. This is another headwind for Jolly: undecided voters lean Republican by 17%. In other words, Donalds already has a lead, and undecided voters are likely to break heavily in his favor."
The poll also found 24.5% of respondents held a favorable view of Donalds to a 19% negative view, a net positive of 5.5 points. Jolly's favorable was 15.1% to 16.2% negative, a -1.1% reverse.
The Florida governor primary for both parties is on Aug. 18, 2026. The general election is Nov. 3, 2026.
