South Florida has long stood as a bastion for Democrats in state and federal elections, however, there are signs that the dam appears to be breaking, adding credence to the notion that the party is truly dead and buried for the foreseeable future.
Here is the evidence:
According to the Palm Beach County Supervisor of Elections, Republicans are approximately 33,000 registrations from flipping the county red. Specifically, Democrats hold a 329,048 to 296,065 registration lead over the GOP in Palm Beach County.
In the 2024 presidential election, Donald Trump narrowly lost Palm Beach County by about 5,500 votes to Vice President Kamala Harris. Two years prior, Gov. Ron DeSantis carried the county for Republicans over Democrat Charlie Crist by about 16,000 votes.
Well, that's just one county, you might say.
Down Interstate 95, Miami-Dade County is even closer to flipping Republican.
According to their Supervisor of Elections, the GOP is under 20,000 registrations from turning Miami-Dade red. Specifically, Democrats hold a 515,657 to 497,175 registration lead over Republicans in the county.
And unlike Palm Beach County, Trump defeated Harris by a whopping 11.5 points in Miami-Dade. His overwhelming victory gave Republicans their first win in the county since George H.W. Bush in 1988.
The win signaled a drastic change for Republicans. In retrospect, Democrats should also have seen it coming.
In 2016, Trump lost Miami-Dade by 30 points to Democrat Hillary Clinton. He lost the county by seven to former President Joe Biden in 2020, a 23-point swing in four years.
In another sign of things to come, Gov. Ron DeSantis won Miami-Dade by 11 points in his gubernatorial reelection bid in 2022. In a similar trend, DeSantis lost the county by 21 to Democrat Andrew Gillum in 2018.
Miami-Dade is also 70% Hispanic, and despite immigration policies and border security deemed by some to be harsh or even racist, including assertions toward President Trump, Republicans are on the verge of putting Democrats out to pasture.
And what about Broward County?
While Democrats still hold a significant edge over Republicans in party registrations, the county has moved slightly in recent presidential cycles. Specifically, Dems lead the GOP by a 521,600 to 278,858 margin.
Going back to 2016, Clinton defeated Trump by 35 points in Broward. Biden beat Trump by 30 in 2016, while Harris only beat him by 17 in 2024.
While Broward might be the last hold for Democrats, there is little doubt that the party is in deep trouble in South Florida.
With most of the state bright red, Republicans making inroads in the region's blue strongholds could be the final nail in the coffin for Democrats and punctuate Florida's history as a swing state as a thing of the past, possibly for good.
