(POLL) Byron Donalds With 10-Point Advantage Over David Jolly in Governor's Race

(POLL) Byron Donalds With 10-Point Advantage Over David Jolly in Governor's Race

Rep. Donalds' lead is slightly higher from another poll this week.

Michael Costeines
Michael Costeines
October 9, 2026

A new James Madison Institute poll shows Congressman and Florida gubernatorial candidate Byron Donalds (R-FL) with a 10-point lead over Democratic challenger David Jolly among likely voters in the governor's race with the general election less than a month away.

Byron Donalds: 52%

David Jolly: 42%

Another candidate: 3%

Undecided: 3%

Rep. Donalds also leads among all registered voters by nine points (48% to 39%). The poll follows a Mason-Dixon result earlier this week showing Donalds with a 7-point lead over Jolly in the race.

Notably, James Madison Institute put out a poll showing Donalds with a 7-point lead in September. Donalds was also ahead in a Stetson University poll by 12 points, while Jolly held a 2-point edge in a Change Research poll that same month.

No other polls besides Change Research show Jolly in the lead.

Donalds is looking to become Florida's 5th straight Republican governor while Jolly is hoping to become the first elected Democrat since 1994.

Along with Donalds-Jolly, the poll found Sen. Ashley Moody (R-FL) with a 10-point lead among likely voters over Democrat Angie Nixon in the U.S. Senate special election race.

Sen. Moody: 52%

Angie Nixon: 42%

Another candidate: 2%

Undecided: 4%

Sen. Moody is also ahead with registered voters by 12 points (50% to 38%). Moody was in a similar position among all voters in the Mason-Dixon poll.

Unlike Mason-Dixon, the poll also looked into two other races for Florida Attorney General between Republican James Uthmeier and Democrat Jose Javier Rodriguez and Florida Chief Financial Officer (CFO) between Republican Blaise Ingoglia and Annette Taddeo.

The poll found Attorney General Uthmeier with a 10-point lead among likely voters (50% to 40%) with 2% for another candidate and 7% undecided. Uthmeier also holds a lead among registered voters by nine ponts (47% to 36%).

CFO Ingolia and Taddeo are tied (43% to 43%) among likely voters with 4% for another candidate and 17% undecided. Ingoglia jumps slightly ahead among registered voters by two points (40% to 38%).

James Madison Institute conducted the poll, alongside Targoz Market Research, between Sept. 28 and Oct. 4 with a +/- 2.77% margin of error.

Michael Costeines

Michael Costeines

Michael Costeines: Florida Political Correspondent/Capitol Reporter for The Floridian (2024-Present) Over 1000 stories written covering Gov. Gon DeSantis, Florida Attorney General James Uthmeier, the Florida GOP, State Legislature, and others Shared by Gov. Ron DeSantis, the White House, Florida GOP Chairman Evan Power, James Uthmeier and others

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