The odds gubernatorial candidate David Jolly becomes the first elected Democratic governor of Florida in over three decades is appearing to gain serious momentum with two election forecasts shifting the race closer in the party's favor.
According to Decision Desk HQ, Florida has moved from "Leans Republican" to "Toss Up," giving Jolly and Florida Democrats another high dose of energy that some may have viewed as an afterthought just a few months ago. Notably, Decision Desk still has Rep. Donalds as the odds-on favorite in the race.
"In our gubernatorial forecast update, Florida's gubernatorial race has shifted into the Toss Up column. Byron Donalds now has a 60% win probability, down from 68% at the start of September," Decision Desk HQ wrote.
Jolly commented on the forecast's analysis in a social media post.
"For the first time, the Florida governor's race is officially a toss up," Jolly wrote. "For over a year, we've been out on the trail, talking to Floridians, and building momentum for this movement. Change is here and we're going to win. Be a part of it!"
And Decision Desk isn't the only one closing the gap.
Another forecaster, Sabato's Crystal Ball predications, moved Florida from "Likely R" (Republican) to "Leans R" this week, prompting Jolly to seize on the momentum in another social media post. Sabato's Crystal Ball also shifted the race from "Safe R" to Likely R" in June.
In addition, Inside Elections moved the race from "Likely R" to "Lean R" earlier this month.
"The momentum is real. Floridians are ready to turn the page, reject the politics of division, and believe in something better," Jolly wrote. "This race is winnable. Florida is winnable. And together, we are going to win."
Florida hasn't elected a Democratic governor since Lawton Chiles in 1994. And while Republicans maintain a 1.5 million voter registration advantage, the GOP might be feeling a little extra pressure in the current political thermometer.
The general election is Nov. 3.
