Democratic gubernatorial candidate David Jolly is feeling confident that he's going to become the first elected Democrat for Florida governor in decades and shake up the state's Republican dominance following new data dropped on the race this week.
According to Inside Elections, the gubernatorial contest between Jolly and Republican challenger Byron Donalds has moved from "likely Republican" to "lean Republican" with the election less than 50 days away.
"HUGE NEWS. The Florida Governor's race was just moved in our direction once again," Jolly wrote. "We're going to win this race."
The data follows another Inside Elections report showing the gubernatorial race moving from "solid Republican" to "likely Republican" earlier this month. A Cook Political Report also shifted the race from "solid Republican" to "likely Republican" in late August.
Could Democratic momentum be growing?
Jolly, a former Republican who announced his candidacy in July 2025, will certainty take the trend. The data could also worry some Republicans that haven't seen an elected Democratic governor since 1994.
Lawton Chiles was the last Democrat elected to the governor's seat. Since then, it's been all Republicans, including Gov. Ron DeSantis for the last two terms.
Here is the rest of the list.
- Rick Scott (2011-2019)
- Charlie Crist (2007 to 2011)
- Jeb Bush (1999-2007)
Gov. DeSantis is term-limited and cannot run for a third consecutive term under the Florida Constitution. He will leave office on Jan. 5, 2027.
But the data is just the data. If recent history is any indication, Republicans should still be pretty confident.
Gov. Ron DeSantis defeated now-Democrat Charlie Crist by over 19 points in his 2022 gubernatorial re-election bid. The win was the largest margin of victory in a Florida's governor's race since 1982.
Republicans also currently hold a 1.5 million voter registration advantage in the state. Democrats haven't had a voter registration advantage since 2020.
However, DeSantis won by just 0.4 points over Democrat Andrew Gillum in his initial election in 2018.
Could this election be more like that? Or will Rep. Donalds run up the score like four years ago?
The election is Nov. 3.
