With Republicans at risk of losing their slim congressional majority in the 2026 midterm elections, all eyes are on Florida (again), as four newly-redrawn congressional districts could eventually decide whether Democrats win control of the U.S. House of Representatives.
While Florida's 14th, 9th, and 25th districts could lean Democrat due to the fact that they are currently represented by an incumbent Democrat member of Congress, the 22nd district is an open seat, and may be the best opportunity for Republicans to gain a new seat this election cycle.
Businessman and U.S. Marine Veteran Casey Askar (R) and educator Pia Dandiya, who both won their primary elections by large margins, will face off in the general election.
Askar is a conservative and supporter of President Donald Trump, while Dandiya, who appears to be running as a centrist, may be more progressive-minded considering her support of both Hillary Clinton, former Vice President Kamala Harris, and former President Barack Obama.
This race will boil down to Independent voters.
Republicans will break for Askar, as Democrats will do the same for Pandiya.
Because Republicans hold a large voter registration majority over Democrats across the state, if Republicans turn out to vote, Askar wins. But, he would still have to garner a good percent of the Independent vote.
The burden Pandiya is much higher. Pandiya needs to turnout Democrats and Independents. She needs to overperform with Independents if she has any chance of winning.
This could be a heavy lift for Pandiya, but not impossible.
Again, this election will be decided on turnout. Democrats need to over-perform with turnout. if they don't, and Republicans do, its lights out.
