A new poll conducted by On Point Politics casts some doubt on state Representative Angie Nixon's ability to flip Florida's Senate seat in the midterms.
Five states polled. Every result PUBLIC.
🔵Michigan - El-Sayed +6.3
🔵Texas - Talarico +4.5
🔵Ohio - Brown +3.6
🔵South Carolina - Andrews +3.5
🔴Florida - Moody +6.7Help us pick the next one. We're looking at Nebraska and Wisconsin 👇
https://t.co/2UsHHr5JY4 https://t.co/t20qbtZ8xs— ‘On Point Politics’ - Lester Tellez (@onpointpolitics) October 20, 2026
The poll shows incumbent Republican Senator Ashley Moody winning a projected 52.5% of the vote a day after early voting in some counties started. That is compared to Rep. Nixon, who is a Democratic Socialist, projected to receive 45.7% of the vote.
That's a difference of about 600,000 votes, according to the poll.
This comes a few days after fellow Democratic Socialist Senator Bernie Sanders joined Rep. Nixon on the campaign trail. The pair visited the University of Florida for a campaign rally Sunday, which drew thousands of students.
The poll shows Sen. Moody with an 88% chance of winning the seat. The new poll also shows a dip in support for Nixon compared to past polls, and an increase in support for Moody.
The Oct. 17 poll showed Moody with a 79% chance of winning, compared to Nixon's 21%.
Moody has the registration advantage of the Republican Party, which has around 1.5 million more voters registered than the Democratic Party, but she doesn't have as large of an advantage when it comes to campaign funds.
Nixon outraised Moody in the third quarter, which ran from July to September. Moody raised about $5.8 million, while Nixon raised almost $7.6 million during that same period.
However, Moody still has a larger campaign fund overall, with a pretty strong safety net going into the third quarter, making the fundraising shortfall less damaging to the campaign. At the end of the third quarter, Moody had over $20.5 million in total campaign funds, compared to Nixon's roughly $8.5 million in total funds.
