Cook Political Report's Battleground District September poll showed the Democrats in a good position to flip the U.S. Congress this midterm season.
"In other words, a district that Trump carried by five points in 2024 would have a Democratic advantage of two points today — a seven-point swing in Democrats’ favor," the analysis of the results said.
The poll looked at just over 1,000 likely voters in districts designated as lean Republican, lean Democrat or toss-up to determine which party will have the advantage among moderates this November.
Included in the study were Florida's 14th, 22nd and 25th congressional districts.
It found that Democrats hold a two-percentage-point advantage against the Republicans on a generic congressional ballot. It also found that, given the choice between a Democratic Socialist candidate or a MAGA Republican, 52% of those surveyed would vote for the Democratic Socialist.
However, if given the choice between a mainstream Republican candidate or a Democratic Socialist, 54% said they would vote for the Republican.
As far as specific issues, the participants of the study trust President Donald Trump and the Republicans most to deal with the border and immigration. They trusted Democrats most with lowering gas and energy prices, and generally trusted them more to deal with the specific issues asked about, like foreign policy and inflation.
Overall, though, participants approved of both Democrats and Republicans in Congress the same amount, according to the results.
"The White House redistricting efforts have potentially knocked down the size of the wave in these swing districts, but it will require individual Republican candidates to separate themselves from the drag the economy is having on the Republican brand,” pollster Greg Strimple of GS Strategy Group said in the results analysis. “Their campaigns need to contrast the places where voters see successes on immigration and crime against the DSA-aligned positions taken by Democratic candidates in order to be successful in the fall."
