In the wake of Early Voting for Florida’s 2026 Primary Election, not a single Republican candidate for Florida’s 22nd Congressional District (FL 22 CD) has yet to outdistance themselves against their respective challengers, as more than 41% of voters remain undecided, according to recent poll numbers.
According to a poll by Fort Myers-based political firm Victory Insights, FL CD 22’s most prominent Republican runners – Belinda Keiser, Casey Askar, and Michael Carbonara – are “statistically tied for the lead,” with Askar showing upward momentum in crosstabs.
Financial Technology (FinTech) businessman Carbonara’s poll numbers (11.4%) have dropped significantly amid a sexual assault case, a $18 million fraud case against him, false Trump support, and his controversial views on Artificial Intelligence (AI) Data Centers.
He owns data centers. In the most recent polls, Carbonara started at 24 % approval but plummeted down to 9% and appears to be stalled at 11%
This dramatic drop could pose to be very problematic for Carbonara.
Both Keiser (13.6%) and Askar (13.1%) are neck and neck for the top spot, with the Naples Entrepreneur just 0.5% short.
David Burck (8.7%), Terri Hasdorff (5.6%), Michael Thompson (3.1%), and Richard Evans (2.9%) all have single-digit support, according to the poll.
Large Number Of Undecided Voters Amid Negative Campaign Hits
The increased number of undecided voters in this primary race could be a result of negative campaign hits from prominent candidates against one another.
As reported previously by The Floridian, Keiser has spent a significant amount attacking both Carbonara and Askar in the weeks leading up to the primary.
Attacks on Carbonara have focused on an alleged $18 million theft, business dealings in Dubai, and a lawsuit filed against his fintech platform, Ibanera.
The attacks on Askar, despite being similar to Carbonara's, also appear rather bigoted, as the jabs go after the U.S. Marine Corps veteran’s Middle Eastern background, falsely depicting him as a Palestinian Muslim, despite his Christian faith and Iraqi background.
Keiser’s Democratic past and business with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) – all of which have been verified – are front and center, leaving voters with far greater skepticism over the candidate.
Voting For FL CD 22
Early Voting for Palm Beach, Collier, and Broward counties opened up on Aug. 8, 2026, while Hendry County has been open since Aug. 3.
Early voting for Palm Beach & Broward’s ends Aug. 16, with the other two counties closing a day prior.
Florida’s Primary Election takes place on Aug. 18, 2026.
