The Republican primary in Florida's 11th Congressional District appears to be a two-way race between veteran Lake County official Carey Baker and businessman Joe Strada, but it looks like media personality Tim Wilkins has a chance to pull off an upset if his history of foreclosures and civil judgments doesn't get in the way.
Considering that we are playing in the American political sandbox, expect Wilkins' financial shortcomings to play a role in his midterm primary election.
What Could Make Each Win?
Strada, who owns the air-conditioning, electrical, security, and plumbing company Strada Services, has the advantage in terms of funding, boasting a $5 million war chest, which he funded himself, and the endorsements of Representatives Jim Jordan (R-OH) and Steve Scalise (R-LA), along with Florida Attorney General James Uthmeier and other state officials, making him the undisputed frontrunner.
Baker, meanwhile, can play the familiarity-and-success angle, even if he lags behind in the money department, with the Florida Fraternal Order of Police (FOP) backing him as the proven conservative leader, putting him in second place.
What gives Wilkins an edge, however, is that he can tap into the activist vote: He is not a political figure with a strong emphasis on being an anti-establishment Christian conservative, an image he can sell based on his experience as a Marine Corps veteran, entertainer, and media producer.
What Could Make Each Lose?
But like in the 1986 fantasy film Highlander, "there can be only one." How might Strada, Baker, and Wilkins each lose this electoral Mexican standoff?
The easiest line of attack his opponents can make against Strada is that he is a rich guy funding his own campaign, and thus trying to buy his seat. Past campaign contributions and business relationships can be dug up to cast doubt on his dedication to the America First/MAGA cause.
Baker's greatest strength is that of being a proven conservative official in Lake County. His biggest vulnerability: He can be written off as an establishment candidate and career politician in an age where long-serving officials are viewed with increasing cynicism.
Wilkins has two issues: courting the activist wing could make him look too radical, especially since he publicly called Islam a "cancer" during the July Sumter County Republican forum, right in front of Muslim Dr. Nizam Razack, another District 11 candidate.
Alternatively, a riskier strategy one could pursue against Wilkins is to note that he filed for Chapter 7 bankruptcy in 1993, has had an active judgment for approximately $24,000 since 2012 in a Sarasota County property dispute, and had several foreclosures on other Sarasota properties between 2008 and 2011, thereby questioning his ability to be a budget hawk in Congress.
The primary will be held on August 18th.
