With mail-in ballots in the wind and early voting just two weeks away, the Republican congressional primary race in Florida's 22nd District has become nothing less than a hot mess of negative campaigning that has crossed the usually blurred political lines into direct, illicit, and apparent defamatory propaganda.
In lame man's terms, it has become a political Sh*t show of attacks that include sexual assault allegations, xenophobic tropes, business dealings with Communist China (CCP), and past histories of voting for, donating to, and supporting Progressive Democrats.
Every day, a new and improved, sometimes false accusation is made against one of the three frontrunners in the primary race—Belinda Keiser, Michael Carbonara, and Casey Askar.
A Super PACÂ (America PACT) has already weighed into this race, and it appears to be taking a pound of flesh out of Keiser and Carbonara, which could lead many onlookers to believe that it is a pro-Askar independent expenditure group.
In addition, a shady group armed with an illegal website that does not display a political disclaimer has been pelting Askar via text messages. The website, which has been linked back to the Czech Republic and has been publicly promoting both stretched truths and outright unbelievable claims against Askar, is being run by foreign bots that appear to originate from the CCP and other foreign countries.
It is important to note that the website in question solely supports Belinda Keiser. At first glance, considering how the website promotes Keiser, it could pass off as a typical contrast site that pops up during contested primary races.
Keiser's campaign has categorically denied that the website in question is in any way affiliated with them.
POLLING
There hasn't been an official and legitimate public opinion poll released in the race, but results of a poll The Floridian received just this past Sunday night tell a very interesting story with 3 weeks to go. It's important to note that the poll numbers we received did not state who commissioned it, nor did it state who conducted it, but it does appear to be a solid and credible survey.
The poll has Carbonara leading with 19 points, followed by Askar with 15 points, and Keiser with 11 points. As we said, this is a 3-way race.
Carbonara has been running for over a year and was expected to be the de facto frontrunner, but Askar and Keiser got in short after the qualifying period ended and have been able to gain momentum.
According to one source close to the national Republican apparatus in Washington, D.C., Keiser appears to be off message because of her pivot to attack both Carbonara and Askar. This strategy and the poll mentioned could signal that Keiser is truly in 3rd place. In addition, the poll shows Keiser underwater with likely Republican voters across the district by 11 points.
The same source also points to Carbonara's "very soft lead" as problematic for him.
Let's break down the attacks per candidate.
MICHAEL CARBONARA
The fintech businessman has not openly attacked either Askar or Keiser, but has been recently targeted in the race by the same PAC attacking Keiser and by the Keiser for Congress campaign itself. Keiser calls Carbonara a "liberal" and points to the confirmed fact that he only became a Republican in late 2024, and "didn't show up to vote for Trump or DeSantis in any of their Primaries."
In addition, Carbonara doesn't live in the district, so he can't vote for himself. This attack from Keiser seems hypocritical considering that when she ran and lost her state Senate race in 2018, she still lived in Parkland, Florida, which is situated some 80 miles from the Senate district she was running in.
As for the claims that PAC has made against Carbonara, they are scathing and accurately sourced, and touch on some of the same claims that Keiser made against him.
Keiser claims that Carbonara's business made it easier for illegal aliens to send money back home to their respective countries, and has been sued for theft and named in other lawsuits for allegedly stealing tens of millions of dollars from foreign banks.
These lawsuit claims are accurate and have been corroborated by the aforementioned Super PAC, which has also outlined in detail and substantiated the claims, including a sexual assault lawsuit he was named in.
On the Carbonarauncovered.com website, "multiple lawsuits" were mentioned, including the alleged sex crime suit. In addition, Carbonara is cited as having donated to Democrats during a recent candidates forum. Well, he isn't the only Republican in the race who has supported Democrats. Keiser was a Democratic mega donor for years, and David Burck, who is also in the race, voted for President Barack Obama. More on Keiser's ties to Democrats in a bit.
A recent Sun-Sentinel story on the cash flowing in the Republican primary race brings into question Carbonara's loans to his campaign. The outflow of campaign cash listed as distributions months before he officially qualified to run for Congress doesn't make sense to anyone.
CASEY ASKAR
The U.S. Marine veteran has not openly attacked either Carbonara or Keiser in the way Keiser attacked on TV, mail, and in text messages, but he has put out a contrast mail piece that outlines the alleged political missteps and not-so-Conservative history of Keiser and Carbonara.
Askar was the first to get it in the race. The previously mentioned dark, foreign-controlled, and Keiser-supporting website, Caseyaskarfiles.com, struck first back in mid-June. In looking at the website, it looks amateurish and doesn't offer much as far as real substance.
It attacks Askar for getting a divorce, calling it a "sham" event. It also questions his military service because he allegedly did not produce his DD214 within 90 days when someone asked him for it. He is accused of trying to buy his previous congressional race. Askar lost his race against now-Rep. Byron Donalds and filed a defamation suit against him.
A text message put out by the shadowy site calls Askar an "Iraqi Extremist."
In addition, the website calls Askar a "carpetbagger" for living outside of the district. After redistricting, Askar's home is now less than 1000 feet outside of the district he is currently running in.
Keiser has also directly targeted Askar, calling him a "liberal joker" and a "Liberal Never Trump Backed" politician. Keiser echoed the dark websites' assertion that Askar did not live in CD 22, and that he also spent "millions of his own money" to defeat Rep. Donalds.
Claiming that Askar is "supported by the Never Trump Political Machine" appears to be a bit of a stretch. There isn't a specific, detailed source listed to corroborate the allegation. Keiser also alleges Askar donated to individuals and elected officials who tried to impeach Trump.
Askar has room to grow. It is going to be interesting to see if he has what it takes to capitalize on any potential gains his campaign could garner.
BELINDA KEISER
Keiser entered the race with all eyes fixated on how the well-known and connected educator would perform in her first attempt at Congress. No sooner than she announced, the American PACT struck hard at Keiser over her liberal Progressive past and her ties to the CCP.
The PAC posted a website called Keiserloveschina.com to outline her long-standing business relationship and partnerships with state-owned Chinese universities, and the direct partnership Keiser University struck with the CCP.
"China is America’s enemy. China is a threat to U.S. national security," states the website before questioning if Americans were ready to elect "this kind of leadership" to the U.S. House of Representatives.
The allegations the PAC made are cited and beyond reproach. Everything they cite links back to news reports, official Chinese government websites, or Keiser University's own website. American universities like Keiser that operate in China do receive funding from the China Scholarship Council (CSC), a non-profit organization controlled by China's Ministry of Education.
It is not known how much Keiser University, which is a non-profit school and receives U.S. federal tax dollars, has received from the CCP, or even if it has received any funding.
The same PAC has also set up another site, this one focusing on Keiser's past history of being a registered Democrat, running for office as a Democrat, and her ongoing fiduciary support of Democrats. The content of this site is 100% accurate.
Keiser has also given thousands of dollars to Republicans as well, but her past Democratic ties could be a non-starter for hardcore MAGA or Conservative Republican voters.
Keiser's campaign spending has really ramped up over the past 10 days, and it could be because of all the negative attacks she was peppered with.
It could also be because the White House is mulling over getting involved in this race within the next week or so. The White House may let this race play out. They probably should.
RESPONSES TO THE ATTACKS
Team Askar: "Casey Askar is focused on delivering for Americans just like he delivered for President Donald Trump in 2024. It’s clear that Beijing Belinda Keiser has reverted to bogus and desperate attacks against the only true conservative and Republican in the race because she is polling 3rd," stated Askar's campaign manager Anthony Bustamante. "Maybe she should reconsider staying in the race. Republican voters will not support a former Democrat who donated and supported Hillary Clinton, Al Gore, and Debbie Wasserman Schultz. Oh, and let me add that voters will not support someone who is currently sipping hot tea and Wonton soup with the Communist Chinese government.
Team Keiser: "Our opponents and their aligned super PACs have been attacking Belinda for weeks through texts, mailers, social media and illegal websites. Their claims are ridiculous and desperate because they clearly know she is the better candidate and more aligned with the voters in CD 22," stated Sarah Bascom, Keiser's campaign spokeswoman, in a request for comment.
