The Jack D. Gordon Institute of Public Policy at Florida International University hosted a webinar on Tuesday examining U.S. politics, energy policy, and relations with Venezuela. Eduardo Gamarra, director of the Latino Public Forum, moderated the discussion featuring Geoff Ramsey of the Atlantic Council's Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center; Gabriela Rachadell de Delgado, partner at InterJuris Abogados; Francisco J. Monaldi, director of the Latin America Energy Program at Rice University's Baker Institute; David Goldwyn, president of Goldwyn Global Strategies and chairman of the Atlantic Council's Energy Group; and Christopher Sabatini, senior fellow for Latin America at Chatham House.
The panel convened more than a year after Venezuela's disputed July 28, 2024, election, in which President Nicolas Maduro retained power despite international criticism over the results' validity.
Disagreement Over Current U.S. Approach
Panelists disagreed sharply on the Trump administration's Venezuela policy. Goldwyn and Monaldi questioned the administration's endgame and the sustainability of current measures, while Ramsey viewed limited oil licenses combined with military shows of force as potentially sustainable, though unlikely to topple Maduro. Sabatini described Trump's Venezuela policy as "very calculated," though "it's not to say that it's gonna work."
"What we are seeing is really a consolidation of foreign policy and defense power by Secretary Rubio," said Goldwyn. "The U.S. is now embarked on a regime-change strategy, at least for the time being … using both economic coercion and military intimidation…They are hoping that a combination of economic coercion and putting a bounty on his head, and having this Marine Amphibious group and the destroyers come down there will create enough dissent inside the regime or fear inside the regime that he is pushed out."
He added, "By declaring him [Maduro] the head of now two different terrorist organizations, created a legal pretext under which they can interdict ships or they can take actions based on terrorism grounds…And so this is maximum pressure - plus, it's maximum pressure part two. And so far, there's absolutely no indication that any of this is working to achieve its intended goals."
Ramsey disagreed. "I don't think we're seeing maximum pressure plus but maximum pressure light," he said. "I sort of see a gap between rhetoric and reality, and U.S. policy here," noting that "there were still some discussions going on between the Trump administration and the Maduro regime, particularly on illegal immigration deportation flights."
"There were nine deportation flights to Venezuela last month," Ramsey said. "The majority of those flights were ICE air flights, meaning they were paid for by the U.S. government." Some flights originated in Florida, landing directly at Simon Bolivar International Airport in Venezuela.
"That wouldn't happen if there weren't some form of backchannel between Washington and Caracas," Ramsey said. "I think there's other things that sort of lead us to be a little more skeptical of the narrative of max pressure here."
Monaldi questioned U.S. strategy goals, asking "why are they sending these Navy ships? Is it just a drug-related operation," or could they be "generating costs for the black-market exports… or a signal to Mexico regarding drug interdiction?"
Sabatini believes the U.S. is taking "the long view of Venezuela, and that's one reason why you've seen the decision to issue the Chevron license and why you're seeing … coordination with Venezuela on deportations." He added, "… the U.S. is starting to recognize that it's not in its long-term geopolitical interest to simply sit back and fold our arms and watch as [Venezuela] drifts further into the arms of the Russians and the Chinese."
Military Intervention Unlikely
Ramsey dismissed concerns about potential U.S. military intervention, noting that "the troop mobilizations that we've seen with the Naval Asset mobilizations … in the South Caribbean are not anything new." He recalled three separate U.S. Navy operations in 2020 that didn't result in "targeted strikes…or anything resembling a regime change operation."
The current mobilization serves as "a show of strength" to "spare the regime from arresting Maria Corina Machado" and signal to Venezuelan military elites that "if they decide to engage in a military uprising, a coup against Maduro, they might receive some kind of secondary support from the Naval assets stationed in the Caribbean."
However, Secretary Landau "has been very clear," stating that "the U.S. is not in the business of toppling governments."
Goldwyn agreed: "I don't think there's going to be an invasion… it would be very unpopular in MAGA World if you were to try. But the bluff strategy will work for a few weeks, and after that, they're going to need a real strategy."
Sanctions Ineffective for Democratic Change
The panelists unanimously agreed that economic sanctions don't produce democratic change and should be tied to specific strategies and milestones.
"Economic sanctions should not be used to cause political or democratic change," said Delgado, who lives in Caracas. She noted that combining sanctions with private licenses provides some relief for Venezuelans facing worsening economic conditions. "You have to take into account that Venezuelans are suffering a lot, so you cannot do a total sanction system without any licenses…as you have to create an environment where companies can do business in Venezuela."
Sabatini cited sanctions' poor track record since the 1950s. "The idea that sanction will isolate a country and an economy… is no longer true. In fact, quite the opposite. Countries are now developing parallel means, like the cryptocurrency, SWIFT-like mechanisms, or even sort of shadow fleets to be able to evade sanctions." He added that the notion sanctions will provoke popular uprisings "has been proven consistently and fundamentally flawed, especially in Cuba."
"Sanctions are effective when they're multilateral, not when they're unilateral. You have to have other countries doing it. Otherwise, it's very easy to evade them," said Goldwyn. He emphasized that sanctions need clear objectives: "What exactly are we trying to achieve? The release of political prisoners, more access to media, scheduling of regional elections, you know, changing of the laws?"
The experts warned that revoking oil licenses for Western companies primarily benefits China, Russia and Iran. "We saw that production increased," said Goldwyn, adding "in terms of objectives, we have pushed them back into the hands of the Chinese and the Russians. We haven't impacted production at all."
Delgado highlighted Chinese investment interest, mentioning a private Chinese company that "has already signed an MOU," noting these are not Chinese government investments but private billionaires "coming with investments."
Mixed Outlook
The panelists offered varied predictions for Venezuela's future.
"We cannot continue like this," said Delgado, "so changes must happen, but I don't think that regime change is something that is going to happen very soon."
“I see factions that are mostly defining their policies because of domestic considerations,” said Monaldi. “I hope at some point we get some coherent strategy that puts somewhere in the priority list bringing democracy back to Venezuela.”
Goldwyn predicted policy shifts by December: "My bet is that by December, we've had no progress on migration, we've had no progress on regime change. We have a lot of infighting in the Venezuelan opposition from different factions about what the right path forward is, Trump gets tired of not having those 800,000 Venezuelans go back to Venezuela. Rubio has had his day. It's time to move on for something else, and they bring Granell back, and we're back to negotiations and coexistence, and we don't interfere in other countries. and maybe they declare victory on the drug front."
Ramsey anticipates a carrot-and-stick approach: "I think you could envision a good cop, bad cop routine here, but in order for that to work, you need to know that the cops are talking, and that when they both go into the back room, there's some kind of a playroom over, and I think that's the missing piece."
Sabatini questioned current policy sustainability: "I often wish that you could average Marco Rubio's position with Rick Grenell's position… you'd actually get a sensible position."
