Republicans One Seat Away From Senate Majority, But Democrats Could Hold Firm

*Note: This article will be updated as races are called. It will also be updated if either party solidifies control of the Senate.

Background

As expected, the presidential election is dominating the headlines. However, there are 34 Senate races up for grabs this election cycle with the balance of power at stake. Seven close races will determine who controls the upper chamber, and Republicans have an advantage in retaining the Senate for the first time since the 2018 election cycle.

These results are incredibly important for legislators such as Senator Rick Scott (R-FL), who plans to run for Senate Republican Leader should he win his own race against former Congresswoman Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D-FL). The duties of that position would vastly vary depending on who controls the upper chamber.

Republicans won control of the Senate in the 2014 election but relinquished it in the 2020 election cycle. In 2022, the attempt at a "Red Wave" by the GOP tightened the balance of power in the Senate 51-49 in favor of the Democrats but did not deliver a seismic shift. Republicans obtained a razor-thin majority in the House of Representatives in 2022.

As for this cycle, the seven races that will decide the Senate majority are in the states of Nevada, Arizona, Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Montana. Democrats will need to win all seven races and the presidency if they want to retain the Senate. However, if Democrats massively overperform in states such as Florida and Texas, then the math changes.

With Senator Joe Manchin (I-WV) retiring, it effectively gifted a 50th senator to Republicans. Despite what appears will be unsuccessful challenges in Texas and Florida, there were no states for the Democrats to flip. This made the math tough for the left side of the aisle.

Although Montana is thoroughly red for presidential elections, Senator Jon Tester (D) could retain his seat through Montana's notorious ticket-splitters. However, the polls show that is unlikely.

Final Election Day Polls, Results (Senate)

Live Race Figures: Republicans: 50 Seats, Democrats 42 Seats

* Indicates an incumbent. Polls represented by final FiveThirtyEight averages.

Arizona – Ruben Gallego (D) vs. Kari Lake (R)

Polls: Gallego +4.1

Results: Pending

Michigan – Elissa Slotkin (D) vs. Mike Rogers (R)

Polls: Slotkin +3.6

Results: Pending

Montana – *Jon Tester (D) vs. Tim Sheehy (R)

Polls: Sheehy +6.9

Results: Pending

Nevada – *Jacky Rosen (D) vs. Sam Brown (R)

Polls: Rosen +5.7

Results: Pending

Ohio – *Sherrod Brown (D) vs. Bernie Moreno (R)

Polls: Moreno +0.8

Results: Race Called for Moreno

Pennsylvania – *Bob Casey (D) vs. Dave McCormick (R)

Polls: Casey +2.8

Results: Pending

Wisconsin – *Tammy Baldwin (D) vs. Eric Hovde (R)

Polls: Baldwin +2.2

Results: Pending