*Note: This article will be updated as races are called. It will also be updated if either party solidifies control of the Senate.
Background
As expected, the presidential election is dominating the headlines. However, Republicans have officially obtained the majority in the Senate as incumbent Deb Fischer (R-NE) won her race against challenger Dan Osborn (I). The GOP currently has 51 seats in the upper chamber, and that number is expected to rise.
These results are incredibly important for legislators such as Senator Rick Scott (R-FL), who plans to run for Senate Republican Leader should he win his own race against former Congresswoman Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D-FL). The duties of that position would vastly vary depending on who controls the upper chamber.
Republicans won control of the Senate in the 2014 election but relinquished it in the 2020 election cycle. In 2022, the attempt at a "Red Wave" by the GOP tightened the balance of power in the Senate 51-49 in favor of the Democrats but did not deliver a seismic shift. Republicans obtained a razor-thin majority in the House of Representatives in 2022.
As for this cycle, the eight races that will decide the Senate majority are in the states of Nebraska, Nevada, Arizona, Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Montana. Democrats will need to win all seven races and the presidency if they want to retain the Senate. However, if Democrats massively overperform in states such as Florida and Texas, then the math changes.
With Senator Joe Manchin (I-WV) retiring, it effectively gifted a 50th senator to Republicans. With the unsuccessful challenges in Texas and Florida, there were no states for the Democrats to flip except Nebraska (Osborn could've caucused with Republicans, anyway). This made the math tough for the left side of the aisle.
Although Montana is thoroughly red for presidential elections, Senator Jon Tester (D) could retain his seat through Montana's notorious ticket-splitters. However, the polls show that is unlikely.
Final Election Day Polls, Results: GOP Obtain Senate Majority
Live Race Figures: Republicans: 51 Seats, Democrats 42 Seats
* Indicates an incumbent. Polls represented by final FiveThirtyEight averages.
Arizona – Ruben Gallego (D) vs. Kari Lake (R)
Polls: Gallego +4.1
Results: Pending
Michigan – Elissa Slotkin (D) vs. Mike Rogers (R)
Polls: Slotkin +3.6
Results: Pending
Montana – *Jon Tester (D) vs. Tim Sheehy (R)
Polls: Sheehy +6.9
Results: Pending
Nebraska – *Deb Fischer (R) vs. Dan Osborn (I)
Polls: Fischer +2.4
Results: Race Called for Fischer
Nevada – *Jacky Rosen (D) vs. Sam Brown (R)
Polls: Rosen +5.7
Results: Pending
Ohio – *Sherrod Brown (D) vs. Bernie Moreno (R)
Polls: Moreno +0.8
Results: Race Called for Moreno
Pennsylvania – *Bob Casey (D) vs. Dave McCormick (R)
Polls: Casey +2.8
Results: Pending
Wisconsin – *Tammy Baldwin (D) vs. Eric Hovde (R)
Polls: Baldwin +2.2
Results: Pending
