Senate candidate Debbie Mucarsel-Powell's campaign is asking national Democrats for a "significant" cash infusion weeks before the November election, prompted by their belief that with a little more money, Sen. Rick Scott can be dethroned.
Because the "uniquely unpopular" Scott, a prominent Republican and former Florida governor, has allegedly squandered his massive wealth advantage, and because liberal referendums will be on the ballot supposedly driving turnout, the U.S. Senate race is a "toss-up" between the conservative powerhouse and Latina congresswoman.
At least, that's what her campaign manager Ben Waldon claims in his case for more national money.
"The only thing that is missing in the Florida contest is a significant cash infusion over the last three weeks," Waldon wrote in a memo released Tuesday, pointing out that Mucarsel-Powell is within striking distance of Scott in a slew of new polls in hard-red Florida. "With that help, Debbie Mucarsel-Powell can help retain the Senate for Democrats and bring new leadership to the Sunshine State."
Once considered a battleground state, the introduction of former President Donald Trump to the national stage marked an initially slow—and later explosive—jump to the right for Florida starting in 2016. For a state that voted twice for Barack Obama, it threw its support behind Trump twice and overwhelmingly elected Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis by 19 points in 2022.
There are now over a million more registered Florida Republicans than Democrats, presenting immense difficulty for any statewide Democrat vying for office. That upward climb has been reflected in national Democrats' financial attitudes toward the state, having largely neglected to invest in Florida until late September when the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee announced a multi-million dollar ad buy in both Texas and Florida to help flip competitively red seats blue, and the Democratic National Committee forked over a $400,000 investment.
On Wednesday, Mucarsel-Powell used the DSCC ad money in a joint advertisement superimposing Scott's face onto a snake, claiming "Florida's biggest snake isn't in the Everglades. He's in the Senate." The ad first ran Tuesday solely funded by Mucarsel-Powell's campaign but was released to TV Wednesday in the major media markets of Tampa, Miami, Orlando, and Palm Beach with the DSCC added to the disclaimer. It refers to Scott's time as the head of the HCA/Columbia hospital chain in the 1990s, slapped with the largest healthcare fraud fine in history.
Scott, who is independently wealthy with a wide-ranging net worth estimated between $270 million and $800 million, had just over $3.8 million in cash on hand for his campaign at the end of July, the latest campaign finance report available. Mucarsel-Powell, a former one-term congresswoman whose net worth in 2018 was estimated at just over $270,000, had over $4.3 million in cash on hand for her campaign.
In terms of contributions in the latest quarter, Mucarsel-Powell raised more than three times as much as Scott: $15.1 million to his $4.9 million, though he can pour in money from his own coffers if needed.
But is this money, and potentially more money from the national party, enough to flip the seat?
Lauren Chou, the communications director for Mucarsel-Powell, thinks so.
"The fact that we've been able to keep within the margin of error is really encouraging," Chou told The Floridian, noting that Scott has not spent nearly as much on this race as he has in the past. "In these last three weeks, this race is a lot closer than maybe a lot of people realize.
"Florida is more than promising," Chou added, noting that the campaign's memo also serves as a PSA to Floridians ahead of the election that Mucarsel-Powell has a chance to become Florida's next Senator.
Scott spokesman Jonathan Turcotte, however, sees the "phony memo" as "desperate" and a canary in the coal mine signaling the campaign is "failing."
"National Democrats are free to waste their money if they choose. But, given their lack of investment so far, it doesn't seem like they have much faith in Debbie Mucarsel-Powell," Turcotte told The Floridian, pointing out that Democrats failed to defeat Scott in 2018 despite spending well over $60 million. "Every election, Florida Democrats say Rick Scott is in trouble, and every election they lose."
Polls released this month show Scott leading Mucarsel-Powell by between two and nine percentage points, with most margins of error falling between two and four points. In a state hemorrhaging Democrats to the NPAs and exploding in Republicans, a poll showcasing a margin-of-error trailing can be promising.
Further liberal hope spawns from the fact that this is a general election year and two Democrat-backed amendments will be on the ballot, which promise to protect abortion access and legalize marijuana. While they hope these factors will cause a boost in turnout for their party, historically a vote for a Democrat issue doesn't always translate to a vote for a Democrat candidate.
Scott has never lost an election, though all his wins have been well under two percentage points.
