Leading up to the first GOP primary debate in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, election polls continue to be closely watched politicos, media types, and activists. However, former President Trump (R) seems to have maintained his lead over the crowded Republican presidential field, despite inconsistency among a variety of polls and a fourth indictment.
The race for second may vary greatly between Governor Ron DeSantis (R-FL) and Vivek Ramaswamy (R), Trump tends to hold a sizable lead in most polls. Two new major polls not only reaffirm this, but give the former president his best odds as of yet. Fox News recently reported that Donald Trump is polling at 53%, 37 total points ahead of Ron DeSantis' 16% in second place. Quinnipac shows Trump garnering 58% support from likely voters and a slightly bumped DeSantis to 18%.
Even with Reuters considered, Trump's worst polling performance, the former president still bests DeSantis by 34 points at 47%. No matter how you split it among major polls, Trump on average has slightly over 50% while the remaining candidates barely crack double digits.
Team DeSantis, the most credible threat against Trump's re-election odds in the Republican primary race, has infamously encountered some internal issues. Team DeSantis fired a third of its staff at one point, got caught up in a controversy over posting Nazi imagery, and faced backlash for Florida curriculum on slavery, among other things. All the while, Trump continues to be indicted.
The general public is seemingly split, almost purely along party lines over the Trump indictments. However, it appears that the indictments are aiding the former president in popularity among Republicans. Back in February of 2023, before any indictments were filed against Trump, the former President only led DeSantis by 2%.
In fact, Republican voters by a staggering 76% believe the classified documents case against the former president is politically motivated, with only 38% of Republican voters thinking it is a national security risk for a former president to retain classified documents, while the general public believed it was a national security risk by 80%.
For the foreseeable future, the Republican party remains firmly in the grasp of Donald Trump, and will not be let loose any time soon short of him winning the presidency once again or perhaps being found guilty in one of his many criminal cases.
