Even as Democrats took control of the White House in the 2020 presidential election, and gained the majorities in both chambers of Congress, a number of congressional seats across the country did flip from blue to red, included closely watched races in states like Florida, in particularly Senator Marco Rubio’s Senate seat CNN is calling “most likely to flip.”
According to a CNN story about the 10 Senate seats they believe will flip in 2022, because President Donald Trump won the state by 3 percent off the overall vote, Sen. Rubio will also face the same odds the former president faced last year.
“Trump’s endorsement of the incumbent likely removes one major headache that Sen. Marco Rubio could have faced: a Trumpier primary challenger, who, at the very least, could have cost Rubio some extra money defending himself, and in the worst case scenario for Republicans, put the seat at greater risk. But with the former President (and Florida resident) behind Rubio, Republicans feel good about this seat even though Trump only carried the state by 3 points, less than he won Ohio. Rubio has a track record of success here, whereas Democrats don’t yet know their candidate. As a moderate with a compelling personal story, Blue Dog Coalition cho-chair Stephanie Murphy could make this race competitive. She’s considering but hasn’t entered the race yet, and while others could still get in too, the governor’s race may also attract some top talent.”
The problem with CNN’s analysis is that Rubio is not Trump and during the 2016 Senate race against centrist Rep. Patrick Murphy (D), Rubio crushed the former congressman by 8 points after the voting dust settled.
Also, taking into consideration that all House Democrats, including Rep. Stephanie Murphy, all voted to impeach President Donald Trump and have voted in support of the current Progressive agenda Speaker Nancy Pelosi has put forth.
In comparing former Rep. Patrick Murphy with Rep. Stephanie Murphy, the contrast is stark. Stephanie Murphy’s voting record is far less centrist than that of Patrick Murphy’s, so considering the Democratic Socialism agenda that is being flushed through the House of Representatives, Rubio has the clear advantage going into 2022.
Now, Rep. Murphy has been very vocal in her opposition to Socialism, but will that work against her in primary race against someone more Progressive?
Earlier this month, President Donald Trump (R) announced that he was giving his “complete and total endorsement” to Senator Rubio.
Calling it an “honor” to do so, President Trump called Rubio “a tireless advocate for the people of Florida” who is “fighting to cut taxes, supporting our Second Amendment, our Military and our Vets, a strong national defense, and all of the forgotten men and women of America.” The endorsement certified that Rubio would not face a primary challenge from a “pro-Trump,” candidate, which is a tactic that other GOP incumbents are expected to face.
No challenger has been announced, but a few other Democrats have been touted as potential senatorial candidates, including Florida Rep. Ted Deutch (D) and Florida Rep. Val Demings (D). Of the three, Rep. Murphy is the only lawmaker that has confirmed she is “seriously considering” a statewide run.
It really doesn’t appear that Rubio’s seat is “most likely to flip.”