The recent Trafalgar Group poll that showed President Donald Trump surging, leading Vice President Joe Biden by 2 percentage points in Florida was quickly dismissed by Democrats as being an outlier poll because all other public opinion polls had Trump trailing Biden by 5-6 percentage points.
But now the latest Hill/HarrisX poll of 965 likely voters has Trump and Biden tied in the sunshine state and gives the Trafalgar poll that much more credibility and confirms a shift in momentum for the president.
Biden and Trump are deadlocked at 48 percent with 4 percent undecided.
According to the Hill’s poll, “Eighty-one percent of Trump’s supporters say they’re casting ballots in favor of him. Fifty-eight percent of Biden’s supporters are voting in favor of him, while 42 percent say their votes are against Trump.”
Trump leads Biden among seniors while Biden leads by almost 20 percentage points among Hispanics.
Trump leads by 10 points when it comes to the economy, but the top issue for voters is the coronavirus, and Biden is besting him by the same percentage amount.
Trump has a 5-point lead among voters over the age of 65, a demographic he carried by about 17 points in Florida in 2016. Biden has a nearly 20-point lead among Hispanics, while the candidates are effectively tied among independents and suburban voters.
Because the Real Clear Politics average of polls has Biden leading Trump by an anemic 1.4 percent in Florida, and by only 4.3 percent across all of the top battleground states, the presumption that Trump is surging has been qualified.
Biden leads Trump by 7 percentage points nationwide.