A poll published Thursday by Stetson University shows Republicans ahead in key Florida midterm elections, casting doubt on a potential blue wave that other polls suggested could occur this midterm season.
A statewide survey, conducted the week of Sept. 14, from Stetson University’s Center for Public Opinion Research (CPOR) showed Republicans had significant leads in the 2026 gubernatorial and Senate race.
Republican candidate Byron Donalds led Democratic candidate David Jolly 51% to 39%, with 5% undecided and 5% favoring a third candidate. Very similar numbers were found in the U.S. Senate race where Republican Ashley Moody and Democratic Socialist Angie Nixon will face off.
Senator. Moody led state Representative Nixon 51% to 40%, according to the poll. The numbers haven't changed much since Stetson's spring survey, with most candidates remaining steady at the same percentages.
The Florida GOP reposted the poll results on X.
NEW POLL: Florida isn't buying what the far-left ticket is selling.
🔴 Donalds leads Jolly 51-39
🔴 Moody leads Nixon 51-40Floridians want leaders moving this state forward, not a ticket owned by the far left. pic.twitter.com/d3CVliXm6M
— Florida GOP (@FloridaGOP) September 24, 2026
The poll also asked participants their thoughts on Amendment 3 to raise the homestead property tax exemption.
Just over 50% said they would vote in favor of the amendment if the election were held today, well below the necessary 60% threshold needed to become law.
A quarter said they would vote no on the constitutional amendment, while 24% were undecided.
This contrasts with a recent poll that showed the gubernatorial race nearly even, with Rep. Donalds holding 44% of the electorate compared to Jolly's nearly identical 43%.
Another poll, sponsored by Freedom Project USA, even showed Jolly up three percentage points from Rep. Donalds in the race.
