Florida Republicans hold such a commanding voter registration and turnout lead over their Democrat counterparts that just 45% of their remaining electorate need vote tomorrow—even if 100% of Democrats show up.
Because there are nearly 1.1 million more registered Republicans than Democrats, over 845K more GOP voters than Democrats cast ballots through the early voting period (which ended Sunday) and vote-by-mail, even though a roughly equal percentage of each party voted: 64% of registered Republicans and about 61% of Democrats.
But these numbers spell disaster for Democratic turnout:
Even if 100 percent of the remaining Democrats vote tomorrow, just 45% of the remaining Republicans would need to vote to keep their turnout lead.
In other words, taking the total, if 100% of Democrats turn out to vote by 7 p.m. on Election Day—all 4.4 million—Republicans would just have to turn out 80% of their registered electorate due to their commanding, near 1.1 million voter registration lead.
How did we get these figures? Warning: math.
So far, 2,693,778 of the eligible 4,421,790 Democrats have cast ballots, compared to the 3,538,877 of the eligible 5,499,717 Republicans. This means there are 1,728,012 Democrats and 1,960,840 Republicans who have not voted.
So if by tomorrow all 4,421,790 Democrats vote, Republicans would just need a bare minimum of 882,914 of their voters to show up—or 45% of the 1,960,840 who have yet to vote—to edge out the Democrats. That would mean Republicans would have 4,421,791 voters who have cast ballots, or 80% of their total eligible voters compared to Democrats 100%.
To make matters worse for Democrats, the idea that all 100% of their voters would turn out is unheard of. That plus the hypothetical 80% Republican turnout would mean that almost 90% of the electorate would be voting. Florida's highest turnout percentage ever was 83% in the 1992 presidential election when Florida chose President George H.W. Bush over President Bill Clinton.
It should be noted, however, that party registration doesn't always correlate to who a voter ends up electing, and this data analysis is not taking into account the over 1.7 million NPAs who have already voted, and the roughly 1.8 million more who are eligible to vote tomorrow.
Democrats have stayed hopeful that up to 60% of NPAs will break for Kamala Harris over Donald Trump, though it remains to be seen what those figures will look like.
278K Democrats who requested vote-by-mail ballots haven't turned them in yet; the same goes for 222K Republicans and 176K NPAs.
While voters cannot go to the polls today, they can tomorrow, Election Day, from 7 a.m. until 7 p.m.
