Florida Democrats Sell Different Picture After Special Election Defeats

The Florida Democratic Party painted a vastly different picture on Wednesday, following a trio of special election defeats across the state yesterday.

"Last night, Democrats exceeded expectations in Republican-held districts, over-performing in Okaloosa, Santa Rosa, & Brevard," it said. Our movement is strong and our momentum is undeniable. In these special elections, voters sent a message: Floridians are fed up and ready for change.

Overall, Democrats lost two House races and one Senate race. Dondre Wise and Juan Hinojosa lost in House Districts 3 and 32, respectively, while Vance Ahrens was defeated in Senate District 19.

All were pretty much expected, as all districts lean heavily Republican.

So what are the Florida Democrats trying to sell here?

Special elections can be a tricky barometer in gauging political capital. They usually fall at inconspicuous times, leaving the knowability of either race or candidate in play.

I mean, how many people were planning on voting on a Tuesday in June? Kids are graduating from school, and every day feels like 100 degrees outside.

Upon looking at all the results, Democrats are technically correct. In all three contests, the Democratic candidate did better than in the previous race's general election.

In HD 3, Republican Joel Rudman beat Democrat Keith Ellis Gillum by 57 points last November. Yesterday, Republican Nathan Boyles defeated Wise by just under 35.

Both of those still look like Florida State football beatdowns to me (maybe not last season), but Democrats are taking the moral victory anyway. HD 3 is located in the Florida Panhandle, by the way, not far from Tallahassee, home to Florida State.

In HD 32, Republican Debbie Mayfield beat Hinojosa by 29 points last November. Hinojosa came back to try again, losing this time by 10 points to Republican Brian Hodgers.

Of all the races, SD 19 might have had the most well-known Republican candidate in Mayfield, who was running to return to the Senate. Democrat Vance Ahrens, looking to become the first openly trans person in the upper chamber, lost to Mayfield by about 9 points.

Ahrens lost in this same district to Republican Randy Fine by 19 last November.

According to the Dems, that's three moral victories. That's arguably after two moral victories in a pair of Congressional races earlier this year.

5-0?

On the other hand, Republicans are going with the actual scoreboard. Last night's victories only solidified the GOP's supermajority control in the House and Senate, and pushed the Democrats into familiar mediocrity.

"3 big GOP wins tonight! Not sure if @NikkiFried even knew there was an Election today, but the good thing is, she keeps digging @FlaDems grave in the Sunshine State," the Florida GOP said. 

If Democrats' idea of winning is participation trophies, they might have plenty of room on the wall. It could be a long time before they are truly victorious again in the Sunshine State.