Florida Democratic Party Chairwoman Nikki Fried recently expressed confidence that Florida could again become a battleground state after small victories in two special elections last week.
"It is a realistic goal, and I think we showed proof of concept this past week that within four months, we were able to go into areas like Escambia County, like the parts of Congressional District 6 that haven't seen the infrastructure here in the Florida Democratic Party for thirty years," Fried said on MSNBC.
Chairwoman Fried mentioned Escambia County, where Democrat Gay Valimont won against Republican Jimmy Patronis in Congressional District 1 by three points. Escambia is the westernmost and oldest county in the state.
It was a small win for Valimont and Democratic hopefuls. Escambia voters last sent a Democrat to Congress in 1992.
Valimont also carried a county not won by a Democrat since President John F. Kennedy in 1960. More recently, Republican President Donald Trump won Escambia by 19.5 points over Vice President Kamala Harris (D) in the general election last November.
In addition, President Trump won the county by 14 points over former President Joe Biden (D) in 2020. In 2016, Trump won Escambia by nearly 21 points over Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Rep. Patronis also dominated in the district's other counties. Specifically, he won Okaloosa County by 23 points, Santa Rosa County by 29, and Walton County by 47 points for a 15-point overall victory.
So, is Valimont's win in Escambia an outlier or a trend? Or is Patronis's overall victory a good sign for Republicans?
In November 2024, former Republican Congressman Matt Gaetz defeated Valimont by 14 points in Escambia County in the CD 1 general election. Rep. Gaetz also beat Valimont by 32 points overall.
Fried also mentioned the special election in Congressional District 6. Republican Randy Fine defeated Democrat Josh Weil in the district by 14 points, despite Fine being outspent and, for a moment, rumored to be in trouble.
Trump carried CD 6 by 30 points in the general election.
Is Fried reaching a bit here? Probably.
Overall, Trump beat Harris by 13 points in Florida in 2024. It also was the biggest win by a Republican over a Democrat in the state since George H.W. Bush defeated Michael Dukakis in 1988.
Florida hasn't elected a Democrat for president since Barack Obama in 2012. In fact, Floridians have picked a Democrat for president only four other times since 1964.
In addition, Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis defeated Democrat Charlie Crist by 19 points in the 2022 gubernatorial election. Democrats last held state governership in early 1999 under Buddy McKay.
Florida Republicans also hold massive supermajorities in the House (86-33) and Senate (27-11). The margin got even worse in the House after Reps. Susan Valdes (R-Tampa) and Hillary Cassel (R-Dania Beach) switched to the GOP earlier this year.
Oh, and Republicans hold a 1.1 million registered voter edge over Democrats in the state. The margin has also gotten worse since Fried became Democratic chairwoman in 2023.
So what is she thinking here?
I guess Fried is banking on close Republican presidential margins in 2020 (3.3%) and 2016 (1.2%) and DeSantis's razor-thin gubernatorial win over Democrat Andrew Gillum in 2018 (0.4%) for her case.
But current numbers don't lie. For Fried and the Democrats, Florida turning blue looks more like a pipe dream for now.
