Biden Admin’s Eleventh-Hour Plan to Lower Nicotine Levels Sparks Concerns in Florida

The Biden administration's eleventh-hour proposal to lower nicotine concentrations in cigarettes has led some Floridians to fear a billion-dollar impact in state revenue and an eruption in black market cigarettes.

The Food and Drug Administration proposed the plan Wednesday, just days before President Joe Biden will step down in favor of Donald Trump. The plan would reduce the standard nicotine content in cigarettes from 10 to 15 milligrams to no more than 0.7 milligrams, meaning a standard pack of 20 cigarettes would have roughly the same amount of nicotine as one cigarette does now.

Ned Bowman, executive director of the Florida Petroleum Marketing Association, told The Floridian that the proposal is a superficial "shot across the bow" typical of outgoing administrations.

"This is just a shot across the bow for the FDA on the way out with this administration," said Bowman, whose organization represents 97% of Florida convenience stores. "We've seen it before when administrations are changed. They send out a lot of these proposals at the last minute, and then I don't think they really think them through."

Bowman, who has led the FPMA for 14 years, warned that reducing nicotine levels could lead to a host of issues, including a billion-dollar slash to Sunshine State tax revenue, harm to tobacco farmers, and an increase in cigarette consumption as smokers seek the same levels of nicotine they're used to. He also predicted a new black market for high-nicotine cigarettes.

"Trying to implement this and then enforce this is very difficult. We're seeing that now with the vapes that are coming in now from China—it's very difficult to stop," said Bowman. "You reduce the nicotine in cigarettes, and people are gonna smoke more cigarettes to get the nicotine. I think it's a self-serving rule."

The FDA has been working on a rule addressing cigarette addiction since at least 2022, hoping to wean people off of the addictive carcinogens by capping nicotine levels in cigarettes, roll-your-own tobacco, most cigars, and pipe tobacco. But according to the National Association of Tobacco Outlets, which commissioned a report in late 2024, the proposal could spark a serious financial fallout.

The report found that while nicotine reduction would likely decrease legal cigarette sales, that downward trend would also be reflected in total tax contributions. The proposal could cause a crippling $24 billion in federal, state, and local tax revenue, with up to 57.5% of future cigarette market sales—an estimated $43 billion—shifting to illegal providers, Florida Politics reported.

Bowman echoed these concerns, claiming that cigarettes could easily be smuggled the same way Chinese vapes are now.

"If this passes, that's what you're going to get: a way around it, and you're going to bring illicit trade into it," Bowman said.

The FDA plan would give the White House another chance to regulate tobacco after shunting aside an earlier plan to ban menthol-flavored cigarettes. The incoming Trump administration will decide whether the proposal can advance or be scrapped altogether.

Trump has a mixed history with tobacco and nicotine. During his first term, he supported raising the federal age for tobacco purchases from 18 to 21 and more tightly regulating flavored vapes. Still, he stopped short of banning menthol and tobacco-flavored vapes.

More recently, however, he reversed course and signaled that he would "save vaping again."

Trump will be inaugurated as the 47th president at noon on Jan. 20.