New Poll Shows Trump, Harris Surge in Battleground States

The 2024 presidential election has been an unconventional election cycle to say the least. On the eve of Election Night, we are no closer to estimating who has the advantage heading into the election. New data from the New York Times shows that President Donald Trump (R) has gained support in Pennsylvania, but Vice President Kamala Harris (D) has also gained support in North Carolina and Georgia. The 2024 presidential election remains close, and the candidates are making their final pitches.

In Florida, despite the Democratic Party’s best efforts to mobilize support, Republicans have turned out for early voting and mail-in voting, clocking in at a lead of over 845,000 votes. As previously reported by the Floridian, the Florida GOP has such a lead over the Democratic Party that, even if 100% of Democrats showed up to vote, only 45% of remaining registered Republicans would have to vote in order to maintain that lead.

Democrats have consistently argued that Florida is at play, but the numbers show that if 100% of Democrats vote by 7:00 P.M. on Election Day - 4.4 million registered Democrats - Florida Republicans would just have to turn out 80% of their registered members to come out on top.

According to a New York Times/Siena College poll conducted between October 24^th and November 2^nd, Vice President Harris leads in Nevada, North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Georgia; President Trump leads in Arizona; and both candidates are tied in Pennsylvania and Michigan. The poll surveyed 7,878 likely voters across the battleground states as both candidates aggressively campaign for support.

In Georgia, Vice President Harris leads President Trump by 1 point (48%-47%). The state has been at the forefront of conversations regarding election integrity. Last month, Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger (R) attempted to quell concerns, touting paper ballots and the state's commitment to report quick tabulations.

Gabriel Sterling (R), a Republican chief operating officer for Secretary Raffensperger, echoed in his remarks while also questioning voters who doubt the electoral process. During an interview with 60 Minutes, Sterling commented that "voter suppression is fake. Voter fraud is fake. It's used to raise money and get you angry."