Florida's Closest State House Races: At Least One Upset, Five Possible Recounts

Florida's eight closest state House races have paved the way for at least one Republican upset, a potential Democrat upset, and five possible recounts as of 11:30 p.m. Tuesday.

In a Republican-dominated state House, Florida Democrats needed to flip five seats. Instead, they may be in dire straits:

HD 35's Republican upset: Tom Keen v. Erika Booth

Democrat Rep. Tom Keen narrowly lost to Republican Erika Booth, a former Osceola County School Board member, in House District 35 by 4,868 votes, though over 38,000 mail-in ballots in Orange and Osceola Counties have yet to be counted.

Though HD 35 encompasses portions of both counties, it's unclear what percentage of those ballots belong to the Keen v. Booth race. Regardless, Keen conceded to the conservative winner in a social media post just before 9 p.m., congratulating her on her victory.

Keen had beaten Booth in a special election in January for the vacant seat, left open by Republican Rep. Fred Hawkins. When he won—a rare feat for the bludgeoned Democrats—party leadership paraded him as a bellwether for liberal victories to come.

HD 37's potential recount: Susan Plasencia v. Nate Douglas

Incumbent Republican Rep. Susan Plasencia has barely hung on to her seat against her 23-year-old Democratic challenger, Nate Douglas.

As of 11:30 p.m., she led by just over 1,086 votes, or by 1.48 percentage points. In Florida law, if a race falls within half a percentage point, it automatically triggers a recount. This district represents portions of Orange and Seminole Counties, which have over 38,000 mail-in votes that still need to be counted.

Again, it is unclear which ballots belong to which House district.

HD 38's potential recount: David Smith v. Sarah Henry

Incumbent Republican Rep. David Smith may face a recount against Democrat challenger Sarah Henry, as he currently leads her by 749 votes in HD 38, which represents part of Seminole County.

This is 0.84 percentage points, lying just outside the mandatory recount margin of half a percent. Seminole still has 104 mail-in ballots that need to be counted.

HD 45's potential recount and Democrat upset: Carolina Amesty v. Leonard Spencer

Republican Carolina Amesty appears to have been upset by Leonard Spencer in HD 45 by just 237 votes or 0.26 percentage points, though this falls within the recount margin.

Considering HD 45 represents parts of Orange and Osceola Counties, there are still thousands of ballots that must be counted.

If Spencer can flip this seat, it would be key for Democrats, who have already lost Keen's seat and may have lost Rep. Waldron's seat in HD 93 (see below). This narrow margin was likely made possible by recent charges against Amesty, who was indicted for forgery.

HD 47's potential recount: Paula Stark v. Maria Revelles

Incumbent Republican Rep. Paula Stark is barely leading Democrat challenger Maria Revelles by 1,484 in HD 47, which also represents parts of Orange and Osceola Counties. This is a 1.94 percentage point margin, potentially placing the race on recount watch in the coming hours.

Again, tens of thousands of mail-in ballots still must be counted, though it remains to be seen which ballots belong to which districts. Similar to Amesty's race, this narrow margin was likely made possible by a slew of Stark's newly publicized spending scandals.

HD 93's potential recount and Republican upset: Katherine Waldron v. Anne Gerwig

Democrat Katherine Waldron may have been upset by Republican challenger Anne Gerwig in HD 93, considering Gerwig has just 404 more votes than the incumbent Rep.

That's a lead of just 0.44 percentage points, placing the Waldron v. Gerwig race within the mandatory recount margin. HD 93 is in Palm Beach County, however, which still has to count 945 mail-in votes.

Like Orange and Osceola counties, it is unclear which districts those uncounted ballots belong to.