Days before the hurricane season is due to draw to a close, a Caribbean system next week could turn into Hurricane Sara and make landfall along Florida's Gulf Coast.
The National Hurricane Center said Wednesday morning that the system has a 90% chance of turning into a tropical depression in the next few days. It pointed out that environmental conditions are "conducive for development" as it moves into the western Caribbean Sea over the weekend.
"The system is expected to turn slowly northwestward by early next week," the center said in their 7 a.m. briefing, warning of heavy rains over Jamaica. "Interests across the western and northwestern Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress of this system."
The soon-to-be Tropical Storm Sara is now called "Invest 99L". If it continues on its projected path, forming into a Tropical Storm and potentially a Hurricane, it will be the third cyclone to wallop Florida's Gulf Coast. Though it's likely too early to tell, many forecasts have Sara making landfall between Key West and Tallahassee, with most projections centering on the Fort Myers area.
Parts of Fort Myers were completely wiped out during Hurricane Ian in 2022.
Even though the hurricane season ranges between Jun. 1 and Nov. 30, November hurricanes are rarer. Florida last experienced a November hurricane in 2022 with Category 1 Nicole, which made landfall near Vero Beach. Before that, the last November hurricane to make landfall in Florida was Gordon in 1994.
If Sara hits Florida later this month, it will be the third system to impact the Sunshine State's Gulf Coast this year. In late September, Hurricane Helene slammed into the Big Bend as a Category 4. Thirteen days later, Category 3 Milton blasted Sarasota and Tampa Bay.
The two storms are estimated to have cost around $100 billion in damages.
