Trump, Scott Large Leads Dwindle in New AIF Poll

According to the latest polling numbers from the Associated Industries of Florida (AIF) Center for Political Strategy, former President Donald Trump (R) and Senator Rick Scott (R-FL) still maintain a commanding lead with just over 30 sleeps until election day. Once again, former President Trump is receiving about the same amount of support from Floridians compared to Sen. Scott, but the former has a larger lead.

Former President Trump holds a 51-46% lead over Vice President Kamala Harris (D), and Sen. Scott holds a 51-44% (5% undecided) lead over former Congresswoman Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D-FL) in AIF’s Q4 Statewide General Election Poll.

However, the leads for both Republican candidates have dwindled a small amount since the AIF Q3 Poll was released a couple of months ago. In early August, President Trump maintained a seven-point lead (53-46%), and Sen. Scott held a 10-point lead (52-42%).

These small changes could be linked to natural fluctuation in polling due to the diversity of respondents. However, it could be due to a legitimate change in the minds of the electorate, and support for Harris and Mucarsel-Powell is rising.

If it’s the latter, it could be a troubling trend nationwide for Republicans if late deciders continue to break for Democrats. With about a month left before Oct. 5, Florida appears to be out of play for Democrats in the Senate and presidential race. To make up a seven and five-point deficit in about five weeks seems unobtainable.

The last time Florida statewide elected a Democrat for the Senate or the Oval Office was in 2012 (Bill Nelson, Barack Obama).

It is not surprising that Republicans have taken firm control in Florida. Florida has historically been dominated by Democrats. In 1972, the Democrat Party boasted nearly 2.4 million registered voters to the Republicans’ 975,000. However, Republicans took their first advantage during Governor Ron DeSantis’ (R-FL) third year in office and exploded to a million-voter surplus as of Aug. 12.

Finally, the Q4 polling from the AIF Center for Political Strategy shows Republicans are still polling better than Democrats on a majority of policy debates in the Sunshine State, including the economy (48-27%), reducing inflation/everyday costs (43-28%), crime (48-23%), education (41-37%), and protecting personal freedoms (47-42%). However, a considerable amount of voters (37%) believe neither party is doing an effective job of lowering property insurance costs as prices continue to be a high priority.

A generic Republican candidate – according to the polling – beats out a generic Democrat candidate 50-45%.