With November presidential election closing in, the 2024 nominees for president are ramping up their campaign efforts. Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris has gained a slight edge over former Republican President Donald Trump in recent polls since President Joe Biden announced he would not seek reelection. Yet, the one place she remains tied with him is the U.S. territory of Puerto Rico.
The poll of 1,138 Puerto Rican voters was conducted by Top Line Report and suggests that if President Biden (D) remained in the race, President Trump would have beaten him by 14 points with 44% of the vote to Biden's 30%.
However, with Vice President Harris now replacing Biden after the first debate between him and Trump, the gap was quickly sealed, as Harris gained a slight edge of 39% to Trump's 38%, which Top Line Report noted was essentially a tie.
While Puerto Rico does not have representation in the Electoral College as a U.S. territory, it still has delegates in the presidential primaries, and 85% of Puerto Ricans surveyed believed they should have the right to participate in the presidential election directly.
The survey could be very telling in that it could signal that Hispanic support for Trump is consistent with room to grow. In addition, could Puerto Ricans, who are living stateside and are legally registered voters, help Trump in must-win swing states like Florida and Pennsylvania?
Prior to Biden's withdrawal near the end of July, Trump had similarly maintained a lead in the polls, both in national averages and crucial swing states. However, the gap was often narrower, as Real Clear Polling has indicated.
In Michigan, for instance, Trump's lead over Biden started strong at nearly five points ahead at the beginning of 2024, though it shrunk by late April to barely one point ahead. Once Biden withdrew, Harris quickly gained over Trump with a narrow two-point lead.
Arizona has been slightly redder than Michigan in its polling averages, with Trump leading over by Biden by 5 to 6 points before the latter's withdrawal. As in Michigan, Harris is closing in on polling averages, with Trump barely one point ahead of her as of August 12th.
Trump has maintained a more substantial lead in Nevada with an average of 3.5% over Harris. At the same time, Wisconsin had narrowly favored him by a single point before Biden's withdrawal, a point that Kamala gained.
Pennsylvania is effectively tied between Trump and Harris, with the latest average placing the Republican candidate at 0.2 higher than the Democrat, both at 47%. Georgia is similarly tied between the two, with a 0.6 lead for Trump over Harris.
Harris has a 1-point advantage in the national average overall, which means that until November, it is effectively anyone's election.
