Trump Beats Biden in Head to Head Polls Before Iowa Caucus

Trump Beats Biden in Head to Head Polls Before Iowa Caucus

Trump unexpectedly becomes best bet for Republicans in 2024

Jim McCool
Jim McCool
December 11, 2023

The Iowa Caucuses usually help dictate how the rest of the presidential primary early-voting states turn out.  However, this year Iowa looks to be less competitive than ever with new polling data showing President Donald Trump (R) ahead of anybody else by as much as 30 points.

With only 5 weeks to go before the Iowans caucus, Trump looks like he will be the apparent winner of the Iowa Caucus if the polls are correct.  Not only is the former president leading by roughly 30 percentage points against both Gov. Ron DeSantis and Ambassador Nikki Haley, but he has also surpassed 50% support among Republican voters in Iowa.

Polls vary extremely from showing Trump support having up to 62% (Emerson) or as low as 37% (Cygnal).  But among 21 different polls, Trump holds a solid 50% to DeSantis' 19.7%.  Haley takes third on average with 15.7%.  All remaining Republican presidential candidates are hoving in single digits.

The most recent poll was conducted by NBC news/Des Moines Register from December 2nd to December 7th, where Trump polled at one of his highest numbers at 51%, 32 points higher than DeSantis' 19%.  These numbers become more significant when compared to President Biden's (D) polling numbers.

The Wall Street Journal recently published data that reflected Biden's worst numbers in his presidential history.  Donald Trump is now leading Joe Biden head to head-among voters for the first time ever.

Biden trails Trump by 4%—47% to 43%, on a theoretical ballot with only those two candidates. Trump’s lead expands to 6 points, 37% to 31%, when five potential third-party and independent candidates are added to the mix.

While Republicans fear the election may be a referendum on Trump, despite the former president not being the incumbent, this fear may go unfounded. According to the survey, 23% of voters say that Biden's policies have helped them positively, while another 53% say they have been hurt by the president’s agenda.

By contrast, about half of voters say Trump’s policies helped them personally, more than the 37% who say they were hurt.

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Jim McCool

Jim McCool

Jim is a graduate of Florida State University where he studied Political Science, Religion and Criminology. He has been a reporter for the Floridian since January of 2021 and will start law school in 2024.

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